January 21, 2003— The United States is currently making significant progress in collecting data on the nation’s oceans (and Great Lakes) for use in weather and climate forecasting and a variety of other related applications. However, current efforts only scratch the surface of what we need to know about oceans in order to fully assess their impact on agriculture, energy production, recreation, transportation and a host of other uses.

Over the last decade oceanographers and other scientists have made plans to expand and improve our ability to collect ocean information. This effort has led to the expansion of a Global Ocean Observing System, a permanent global system for marine and oceanic observations, modeling and analysis to support operational ocean services worldwide. Ultimately, this system will provide much greater detail about the oceans from the deep waters of the Atlantic and Pacific to coastal waters (and the Great Lakes).

The cost of upgrading the nation's ocean observing capabilities has been estimated to be on the order of hundred's of millions of dollars over the next decade (note, however, that a more precise cost estimate is being developed through the U.S. Office of the National Oceanographic Partnership Program, taking into account both system requirements and benefits). However, because this GOOS expansion comes at a time when the nation’s resources are already stressed, questions regarding the return on this substantial investment need to be addressed.

While research is underway to more precisely estimate the economic benefits that will accompany a new and expanded GOOS, estimates of the benefits that have already been achieved with the existing GOOS indicate that the nation will realize even greater benefits from an upgraded GOOS – savings several times greater than the actual costs of the system itself.

From the beginning, GOOS designers have made users' needs a top priority. The number and types of people and organizations that use GOOS data has exploded over the last decade due to a combination of new technologies (e.g., the Internet, personal computers and cellular telephones) that have made it both technologically and economically more feasible to widely distribute this data. For instance, commercial fishermen are now using its ocean data by incorporating climate forecasts into management and harvest decisions (Adams et al., 2000). Likewise, more GOOS data is being used by the scientific community, especially those investigating climate change and commercial fishery issues. Therefore, more extensive GOOS datasets should provide an array of economic benefits that far exceed the cost of GOOS itself.

The Economic Benefits of An Ocean Observing System
The key to better understanding weather and climate is understanding the ocean. Likewise, weather and climate forecasting has become more important to the economy. In general, however, estimating the importance of weather to the economy varies depending on what is being measured:

• Damages in the United States from severe weather are nearly $12 billion annually (NOAA Economic Statistics, 2002).
• The proportion of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product – that is in one way or another sensitive to weather – is estimated as a much as one-third of the GDP or around $3 trillion (Dutton, 2002).

Improved weather forecasting can dramatically affect these values. For example, a partial estimate of these benefits is already available from studies of the nation’s existing GOOS in the Pacific Ocean, a system which has already significantly improved our ability to forecast recurring, but irregular variations in water temperatures, known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Specifically, the economic benefits of improved El Niño forecasting as it relates to U.S. agriculture have been estimated for two possible scenarios:

• Better planting decisions by farmers, taking into account variations in rainfall resulting from El Niño, could increase the value of agricultural output by as much as $300 million per year (Solow et al., 1998).
• When crop storage and other worldwide agricultural changes are factored in, the increase in output escalates to at least $450 to $550 million per year (Chen and Mcarl, 2002).

Another perspective on the value of El Niño forecast improvements indicates that they would yield an average annual return to the economy of between 13 percent and 26 percent (Sassone and Weiher, 1999). This is significantly higher than the 5.8 percent minimum rate of return specified for federal projects by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB Circular A-94).

Energy industries are also heavily dependent on weather and climate forecasts. Hydroelectric generators, for example, could see as much as a 50 percent difference in stream flows in El Niño-influenced winters (Weiher, 1999), compared to more typical winters.

Therefore, a more accurate stream flow forecast could be worth millions of dollars to a single utility — and its customers. Other energy related uses of weather forecasts include forecasting winter demands for heating oil and natural gas, planning for alternative energy sources (i.e., wind energy) and monitoring air emissions (SAIC, 2000).

Weather and climate data are also increasingly important to both tourist and recreation industries. Large hotel chains use weather and climate data to decide on investments and staffing. Likewise, recreational boaters routinely check the weather conditions on the ocean using Web sites that display hourly wind direction and speed data before venturing out.

The Societal Benefits of A Regional Ocean Observing System
Much of the economic benefit associated with an expanded GOOS will derive from a network of regional observing systems that are being established in all U.S. coastal waters. One of these regional systems is the Gulf of Maine Ocean Observing System (GOMOOS), which operates a network of buoys and other observing technologies from Cape Cod to Nova Scotia. A recent economic analysis of GOMOOS estimates that the benefits associated with GMOOS information could be as high as $30 million per year, compared with an annual cost of around $6 million (Kite-Powell and Colgan, 2001).

The types of benefits that will be provided by these regional observing systems include:

• Improved data to assist in U.S. Coast Guard search and rescue efforts.
• More efficient routing for marine transportation. Shipping companies rely on ocean current and weather data to find the most efficient routes, and — in a number of regions — depend on the NOAA PORTS program to provide real-time current data.
• Diminished oil spill damages. Up-to-the minute response information on currents and winds is essential to effective deployment of oil spill containment and cleanup efforts. For example, even a one percent increase in the efficiency of oil spill cleanup would have saved New England $7.5 million over the last ten years, and nearly $100 million in the United States over the same period.
• Improved recreational opportunities, such as planning around inclement weather conditions and identifying prime recreational fishing opportunities. In some areas, GOOS provides information to more precisely monitor and predict beach conditions, thereby avoiding unnecessary beach closings.

These are just a few of the ways in which GOOS can be used. A new and expanded GOOS can be used to better locate new offshore energy facilities, improve operational planning for the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard, and enhance the design and durability of ocean structures. Beyond these uses, GOOS data will also contribute to a better understanding of the oceanic and atmospheric environments. This could facilitate improvements in fisheries management practices and response plans to hazardous weather conditions and climate change.

Not only will national investments in an improved and expanded GOOS reap benefits in the future, but it will provide benefits almost immediately in the form of improved safety and more sound economic decisions by both industries and individuals. Therefore, a new and expanded GOOS represents a win-win situation. The value of the knowledge gained from GOOS will more than pay for its cost in a relatively short period of time.

References
Adams, Richard, et al. 2000. The Economics of ISOOS: Benefits and the Rational For Public Funding. NOAA Office of Policy and Strategic Planning.

Chen, C. and B. McCarl. 2000. The Value of ENSO Information to Agriculture. Department of Economics, Texas A&M University.

Dutton, John A. 2002. “Opportunities and Priorities in a New Era for Weather and Climate Services.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Sept., 2000. 1303-11.

NOAA Economic Statistics. 2002. NOAA, Office of Policy and Strategic Planning, May 2002.

Kite Powell, H. and C. Colgan. 2001. The Economic Benefits of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems: The Gulf of Maine. NOAA Office of Policy and Strategic Planning.

SAIC (Science Applications International Corporation). 2000. Defining the Requirements of the U.S. Energy Industry for Climate, Weather and Ocean Information. NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research.

Sassone and Weiher. 1999. “ Cost-Benefit Analysis of TOGA and the ENSO Observing System”. In R. Weiher (ed) Improving El Niño Forecasting: The Potential Economic Benefits. NOAA Office of Policy and Strategic Planning.

Solow, A. et al. 1998. “The Value of Improved ENSO Prediction to U.S. Agriculture. Climate Change 39:47-60.

Weiher, R. 1999. The Value of Weather Forecasts, MIT Energy and Environment Policy Workshop, Cambridge, MA. April, 1999, available from rodney.f.weiher@noaa.gov.

Relevant Web Sites
Building a Sustained Ocean Observing System for Climate

THE CONTRIBUTION OF NOAA BUOYS TO A GLOBAL OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM:
BENEFITS TO CLIMATE PREDICTION AND RESEARCH

Office of Global Programs -- Climate Observation

Argo

Argo B-Roll of Deployment from a Ship

Animation with a Narration of the Argo Deployment

Tropical Atmosphere Ocean project

NOAA El Niño Theme Page

NOAA La Niña Theme Page

El Niño and La Niña Page

Operational El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Observing System

NOAA's CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE MAPS

ENSO Fact Sheet

Frequently Asked Questions About La Niña and El Niño

Media Contact:
Greg Hernandez, NOAA, (202) 482-3091