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NOAA'S FIRE WEATHER SERVICES

Fire fighter standing near forest fire. August 13, 2002 — Each year more than 100,000 wildland fires occur in the United States. Wildfires typically start in early January in areas of the Southeast and continue to impact various locations throughout the United States during the rest of the year. About 10 percent of wildland fires are started by lightning, while the remaining 90 percent are started by humans. As of August 5, nearly 55,000 wildland fires have burned an estimated 4.5 million acres this year — more than doubling the 10-year national average of 2.1 million acres per year, according to the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho. Half of the 2002 acres that have burned were started by lightning strikes. Typically, the height of the fire season occurs in early August, so these statistics of acres burned do not bode well for what is shaping up to what could be a record-setting wildland fire year. For the latest fire statistics, historical comparisons of past fire seasons, causes, photos, etc. visit the NIFC Web site.

NOAA van with forest fire in background.

How does weather influence wildland fires?
Although oxygen, fuel and heat, are the three main ingredients necessary to start a fire—weather, fuel type and topography are the most significant factors determining the severity and behavior of wildfires (i.e., the characteristics of each component directly affect fuel flammability, rate and amount of heat released during fuel combustion, and the fire spread). For example, the intensity of fires and the rate at which they spread is directly related to the wind speed, temperature and relative humidity. Likewise, climatic conditions—such as long term drought—also contribute to the number and intensity of wildfires.

Therefore, both accurate and timely weather information is vital to the planning and execution of wildfire suppression strategies. Fortunately, NOAA meteorologists have worked closely with fire control specialists from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Forest Service, the Department of Interior's Bureau of Land Management, and other federal, state and local fire control agencies responsible for suppressing fires since 1914.

The objective of NOAA's National Weather Service Fire Weather Program is to provide meteorological support to land management agencies for the protection of life and property. This support includes warnings, forecasts, on-site services during wildland fires and meteorological training for fire fighters. Furthermore, the Weather Service Forecast Office in Boise, Idaho is located at the National Interagency Fire Center, which serves as a nationwide command post to provide logistical support during the fire season.

NWS forecasters monitor meteorological conditions continuously during the fire season and use their knowledge of weather to assist authorities with fire suppression strategies and related safety issues. NOAA's Fire Weather Program assists firefighters by providing fire weather information from a variety of sources, namely NOAA satellites flying some 23,000 miles above the equator, local NWS Offices and from specially trained incident meteorologists, who join fire fighting teams near the front lines of the blaze battle.

Wildfire Information from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center
Each morning, NWS forecasters at NOAA's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., issue routine fire weather forecasts, thus helping fire officials plan ahead and focus their resources. For example, the forecast maps show areas throughout the contiguous 48 states where hot temperatures, low humidity and high winds combined with dry fuels will create critical large-scale fire weather conditions. They also highlight areas where dry thunderstorms are expected to produce significant lightning—more than 100 strikes—with the potential to ignite more fires in the dry vegetation.

SPC meteorologists use a variety of resources to make their wildfire forecasts, including high resolution fire information from NOAA satellite systems (i.e., Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites and Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites). Specifically, NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service provides geostationary and polar satellite data on a near real-time basis as well as processed satellite images to identify fire hot spots. Satellite derived images give fire managers and state officials high resolution information regarding fire locations, movement and intensity that cut through the smoke and haze.

Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WFABBA)
The latest and most advanced development in NOAA's fire detection from space are the Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WFABBA), now being used to process data from the agency's two geostationary satellites (i.e., GOES-8 East and GOES-10 West). Specifically, NOAA—in cooperation with the University of Wisconsin Space Science and Engineering Center in Madison, Wis.—has developed a technique, which enables fire-weather forecasters and other emergency workers to rapidly identify and monitor forest fires detected by GOES satellites flying some 23,000 miles above the equator.

Because these two GOES satellites orbit at the speed of the Earth's rotation, they are able to keep a constant watch over specific fires and supply data used to create the fire products every half hour for all locations in the entire Western Hemisphere. Note that GOES satellites are typically used in weather forecasting, but this new algorithm has expanded their use to include fire detection and monitoring.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center then combines all 96 images collected by the two GOES satellites over the 24-hour period to produce one new image showing all wildfires detected at a 4-kilometer resolution. The system also allows SPC meteorologists to overlay geographic information and zoom in on any particular fire "hot spots."

"The satellite fire detection algorithm is making it easier for fire weather forecasters to do their job," said Elaine Prins, NOAA research meteorologist who developed the product. Currently, the product is available over North, Central and South America and is used by climate change research scientists, resource managers, fire managers, and policy and decision makers nationally and internationally. Animations of fire product imagery for the past 24 hours are available online. The ABBA system is planned to be fully integrated into operations later this year.

Another useful NOAA fire product, Satellite Services Division Fire Program Hazard Mapping System (HMS) displays satellite derived fire information from four different environmental satellites on a Geographic Information System (GIS) Web site, including information derived from the GOES WFABBA fire product. Specifically, HMS integrates quality controlled information from the following fire products: GOES, POES, Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System, and the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS).

Forest fire along road in Western United States. Fire Weather Information from Local NWS Offices
Forecasters at local offices in each of the NWS regions – Alaska, Central, Eastern, Pacific, Southern, and Western – play a vital role in supporting efforts to control wildfires that rage across the United States each year. Specifically, from their regular locations in the 121 forecast offices across the nation, forecasters are able to provide valuable fire weather information to land management officials. Forecasters use the SPC's fire weather forecasts for guidance as they predict weather in their specific areas of responsibility and issue fire weather watches and red flag warnings.

Relevant products issued by the NWS Fire Program include the following:

  • Red Flag Warning — A Red Flag Warning is issued when forecast weather conditions together with existing environmental conditions could result in extreme fire behavior or, as in the case of dry lightning, extensive fire starts within the next 24 hours.

  • Fire Weather Watch — A Fire Weather Watch is issued when Red Flag conditions are expected within the next 72 hours.

  • Pre-suppression Forecast — Issued once or twice daily during the fire season, this is a narrative forecast of upcoming weather conditions, which is used in planning for suppression of wildland fires.

  • National Fire Danger Rating Forecasts — Point forecasts issued for selected observation sites. These forecasts are used as input for the National Fire Danger Rating System, which generates indexes used in determining fire danger for a given area and to plan for the necessary human and other resources needed to fight wildland fires.

  • Spot Forecasts — These site specific forecasts are issued at the request of user agencies. They are generally used for the planning and safe control of prescribed burns. Spot forecasts may also be requested by fire managers planning the suppression of a wildland fire.

  • Incident Response — Air Transportable Mobile Units (ATMUs) and specially trained Incident Meteorologists are available on request to provide on-site meteorological support during wildfire suppression. ATMU service is most likely to be requested during large and complex fire fighting operations extending over a period of several days or weeks.

Current versions of these products can be found at:
  • The NWS Fire Weather home page contains all of the routine fire weather forecasts, as well as links to fire agency weather graphics and the daily situation report.

  • The NIFC in Boise issues a daily summary of major fire activity.

NWS Incident Meteorologists (IMETs)
The NWS also support federal wildland fire management agencies by providing weather forecasts in the field at the site of the fire. Specifically, the NWS has approximately 50 specially trained and certified Incident Meteorologists (IMETs), who are available to be deployed to support fire activities onsite in the field—or at nearby interagency Geographic Area Coordinating Centers, where they work side-by-side with other agencies supporting multiple fires in a given area.

IMETs work throughout the year in many of the NWS's forecast offices, but during the fire season, they pack their bags and head to wildland fires burning anywhere across the nation. Once onsite, IMETs sometimes live in tents or at other housing areas established by local land management agencies. At any given time, there could be 10-20 IMETs deployed from their home base to remote locations. The IMETs receive special training in microscale forecasting, fire behavior and fire operations—thus making them a key member of the fire management team.

They hold on-site weather briefings at least twice daily for the operational fire management teams. Accurate weather information gives a strategic edge to these land management agency decision makers who use the weather information to plan where to place crews and how best to fight the fire.

The IMETs' primary objective is to promote fire crew safety and provide on-site tactical support to the fire management team. Specifically, IMETs provide up-to-the minute forecasting of precipitation, surface temperatures and wind direction/speed. They help land management officials (i.e., operational fire management teams and fire behavior analysts) interpret weather information and develop strategies to best fight the fires. IMETs also train fire personnel on how weather may affect their operations during critical fire situations.

According to Larry Van Bussum, NWS' staff meteorologist at NIFC, "By August 5, the IMETs have also set their own records by surpassing the number of days they have been deployed. To date, there were 121 IMET dispatches, which is ahead of the previous record setting year of 2000. Thus far, NWS IMETs have put in 12,754 man-hours of work this season. This figure compares to a couple of years ago when IMETs worked a total of 21,910 man-hours during the entire record setting 2000 wildland fire year."

IMET with his equiptment on site at a fire. Key Equipment Used by IMETs
IMETs can deploy rapidly with portable forecast and communications equipment near the fire lines to provide critical fire weather forecasting support. Specifically, IMETs use laptop computers to access information from local forecast offices and use other special equipment in preparing critical information for wildfire suppression.

The main tool used by IMETs is a special, portable 250-pound Advanced Technology Meteorological Unit (ATMU) (See image to the right), which enable forecasters to operate in the field—and at nearby fire command centers—to provide near real-time meteorological support for fire suppression efforts. For example, ATMUs include a thermometer to measure temperature, an anemometer to measure wind speed, a first aid kit and other safety and meteorological gear. IMETs also use a theodolite to tracks weather balloons, which can rise up to 15,000 feet collecting wind information.

NOAA's Fire Weather services give the wildland fire managers the ability to make informed decisions about deploying assets and ensuring the safety of their firefighting units. Whether they're making tactical decisions before setting a prescribed burn or deciding where best to put their human and tactical resources on the fire line, they're relying on the expert advice from the NOAA.

Relevant Web Sites
NOAA Fire Weather Information Center

NOAA Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Forecasts

Latest Fire Weather Information from NOAA's NWS

The Experimental Wildfire ABBA Fire Product

Most Recent Wildland Fire Update from National Interagency Fire Center

NIFC Web site

NESDIS's Satellite Services Division (SSD) Fire Program Hazard Mapping System (HMS)

NWS Incident Meteorologists

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Media Contacts:
Marilu Trainor, NOAA's National Weather Service Western Region, (801) 524-5692 ext. 226

Curtis Carey, NOAA's National Weather Service, (301) 713-0622