NOAA Magazine | NOAA Home Page ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE: WATER INFORMATION FOR A STRONGER AND SAFER AMERICA July 3, 2002 — Each year, floods kill more people than any other form of severe weather, and cause damages in excess of $3.5 billion. Three-quarters of all presidentially declared disasters are the result of flooding. At the same time, demands for water resources continue to increase, especially under drought conditions. Clearly, hydrologic forecasting is critical to public safety and the nation's economic security. NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service will provide new forecast products depicting the magnitude and uncertainty of occurrence for hydrologic events—ranging from droughts to floods. Specifically, AHPS uses a combination of remote sensing, data automation and advanced (weather, climate and hydrologic) modeling to analyze data and create graphical displays of probability forecasts. Once fully implemented at the national level, AHPS will significantly improve river forecasts and water resource management in the United States, with lead times of as little as an hour to as much as several months. Furthermore, AHPS information is made available in a timely and user-friendly manner, including visual products, which can be posted on the Web: Hydrographs displaying observed river levels for the past two days and forecasted levels for the next three to seven days. Probability Forecasts showing the chance of river conditions exceeding a particular value in a seven-day period over the next 30 days. Flood Forecast Maps showing the geographical areas forecast to be inundated. According to the National Hydrologic Warning Council report, "Use and Benefits of the National Weather Service River and Flood Forecasts," AHPS — once fully implemented throughout the United States — will provide $766 million in economic benefits each year. Specifically, it will save lives and an estimated $243 million per year in flood losses, and will contribute an additional $523 million per year in economic benefits to water resource users. AHPS Benefits AHPS will benefit the general public and many other sectors of the community (i.e., river commerce, hydropower, emergency response, environment, recreation and agriculture) by enhancing flood reduction, irrigation/water management, navigation and hydroelectric power generation. Flood Reduction ($243 Million/Year): AHPS provides better information to emergency managers and local officials, helping them make decisions such as: When to reinforce levees and to what level. When and where to evacuate people from potential flood areas. When to move goods and industrial property from flooded areas. How to utilize reservoir storage capacity to reduce flood impact on people and businesses. Irrigation/Water Management ($273 Million/Year): Under drought conditions, AHPS provides water managers with statistical data useful in making decisions about water allocation and economics, such as: Whether to release water from reservoirs in the spring or hold it for anticipated agricultural and industrial needs. How much water to release to agricultural needs during marginal precipitation years. Assessing risks and potential economic impacts (when used in conjunction with sophisticated economic models). Navigation ($169 Million/Year): AHPS provides river information for navigation use such as: Establishing cargo weight limit and barge displacement for safe river navigation. Scheduling river transportation to take advantage of river flow conditions. Hydroelectric ($81 Million/Year): AHPS provides better information to assist energy managers in making decisions such as: Determining which reservoir operation would optimize the generation of hydroelectric power. When and to what degree hydroelectric power should be augmented by alternate forms of power generation. Future pricing for buying or trading power units. AHPS Implementation AHPS has been deployed in critical areas of the Upper Mississippi and Ohio River basins since it first received funding in FY 2000. Within the president's budget request for FY 2003, AHPS implementation will be accelerated in the Northeast, Middle Atlantic and Southeast—including the states of New Hampshire, Vermont, Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina. The funding will also support continuing AHPS implementation in the Upper Mississippi and Ohio river basins. Relevant Web Sites NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service AHPS Fact Sheet AHPS Brochure AHPS Implementation Report River Forecast Centers NOAA Flood Links FLOODS: Among the Greatest Natural Disasters Media Contact: John Leslie, NOAA's National Weather Service Public Affairs, (301) 713-0622