UP CLOSE: MAX MAYFIELD
OUTGOING NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DIRECTOR DISCUSSES NOAA'S HURRICANE PROGRAM AND ADVICE FOR HIS SUCCESSOR

December 7, 2006 — Max Mayfield will retire as director of the NOAA National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla., on Jan. 3, 2007 — after having served 34 years with NOAA.

The NOAA National Hurricane Center, part of the NOAA National Weather Service, has been the focal point of the nation's hurricane forecast and warning program for 50 years. Its mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings and forecasts of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing the public’s understanding of these hazards. Mayfield has overseen the talented team of hurricane specialists, technicians and support scientists at the center since 2000, and together they have endured several highly active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Starting as a satellite meteorologist with NOAA in 1972, Mayfield quickly rose through the ranks to become not only a well respected hurricane expert, but a nationally recognized advocate for hurricane awareness/preparedness, reminding the 50 million people who live in U.S. coastal counties from Maine to Texas that they are all in the path of a future storm. Mayfield also is the current chairman of the World Meteorological Organization’s Regional Association-IV Hurricane Committee, which supports 26 members from Atlantic and eastern Pacific countries.

Among the many awards Mayfield has received while at NOAA, his most recent include an Emmy, the 2005 Presidential Rank Award for Meritorious Service and being named ABC’s World News “Person of the Week” following Hurricane Katrina in 2005. NOAA and the nation agree that Mayfield has played a key role in advancing the agency’s hurricane mission through improved forecasts, products and services.

Below Mayfield shares his thoughts on his career/retirement, the NOAA National Hurricane Center and hurricanes in general.

Q: How has becoming a household name and one of the nation's most recognized hurricane forecasters affected you?
A: I think that people who know me would say that I haven't really changed. I'm always honored when people come up to me at a restaurant or in a store and say thanks for the efforts over the years. One thing that has changed for me — I no longer buy water or batteries or other hurricane supplies. A lot of folks who see me doing that think I know something they don't. I now let my wife buy the hurricane supplies.

Q: What is it like to be Max Mayfield leading up to a U.S. hurricane strike?
A: The Mission of the NOAA National Hurricane Center, is "to save lives, mitigate property loss and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards." During a hurricane landfall threat, I find that if you focus on "saving lives", everything else seems to fall into place.

Q: Hurricane Katrina demonstrated that it won't take a Category 5 hurricane to create havoc in a place like New Orleans, La. What are your worst fears regarding future hurricanes? Will we see another Katrina?
A: My worst fear is that we will have another loss of life like we did in Katrina. That is simply not acceptable. In regard to seeing another Katrina, I can assure you that we will see hurricanes even stronger than Katrina. The NOAA National Hurricane Center post analysis on Katrina rated it as a Category 3 hurricane at the time of landfall in extreme southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi. The strongest winds in Katrina did not move over New Orleans. Instead, we think the city experienced Category 1 and 2 winds on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. And, Hurricane Rita did not hit Galveston and Houston — it made landfall over the less populated southwestern Louisiana. And, Hurricane Wilma made a direct hit on the southwest Florida coast — not the southeast Florida coast where 7 million people live. So as bad as the 2005 hurricane season was, it could have been worse.

Q: What do you perceive as being the most important hurricane and/or hurricane forecasting issues in the future?
A: Intensity. We have a success story for the American taxpayer on hurricane track forecasting. The observations from satellite, aircraft and radar are improved. The computers are faster and the computer models are much more sophisticated. All of these advances have led to improved track forecasting. In fact, we have cut the track forecast errors in half over the past 15 years. That is the success story. But we have not made significant improvements in intensity forecasting. On average, we do a pretty good job, but even with today’s technologies, we have not had great success catching the rapidly intensifying hurricanes. Of all the tropical storms and hurricanes that make landfall in the United States, only about 20 percent of them are major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale). Yet that 20 percent causes more than 80 percent of the damage. Most major hurricanes become major hurricanes by going through rapid intensification. The computer models don't forecast that well and neither does the official forecast. If you think back to Katrina, Rita and Wilma, they were all major hurricanes well before they made landfall, which got people's attention. One of my greatest fears is having people go to bed at night preparing for a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane and wake up to a Katrina or an Andrew. We need more research dollars focused on unraveling the mystery of rapid changes in hurricane intensity. And, of course, improvements in forecasting track and size must be continued.

Q: In May of 2000, when you were named director of the NOAA National Hurricane Center, you stated that your goal was to "help improve the warning lead times and increase the center's understanding of the tracks and intensity of hurricanes." Do you feel you have succeeded in achieving this goal?
A: With the improvements in track forecasting, the NOAA National Hurricane Center has definitely improved the lead times that people have to prepare for hurricanes. The NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet that we fly around hurricanes to collect observations has more than paid for itself. The NOAA National Weather Service Global Forecast System model guidance has improved 10 to 15 percent in the critical watch/warning periods with the G-IV data. And NOAA has a plan for improving intensity forecasting with the new Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model that will be available next season. I would caution people that we should not expect miracles, however. Intensity forecasting is a real challenge and it will take some time before we see significant improvements, in my opinion. So my answer is that yes, we have improved on the lead times and the track forecasting, and we are headed in the right direction in improving intensity forecasting. But as we continue to develop the coastline, we need to make even faster improvements.

Q: Can you tell us about your most memorable moment while working at the NOAA National Hurricane Center?
A: I'm not sure I have one most memorable moment. Every storm and hurricane is different, and I have learned to expect surprises. If I had to name the most memorable hurricane, it would of course be Hurricane Katrina. I wanted to be able to leave the hurricane center on Saturday, August 27, 2005, knowing that I had done everything possible to prevent a large loss of life. I called the governors of Louisiana and Mississippi, and the mayor of New Orleans to make sure they understood the gravity of the situation. The forecasts were good. The coordination between the NOAA National Hurricane Center and the local NOAA National Weather Service offices was good. The coordination between the NOAA National Weather Service and emergency management was good. I don't know what else could have been done by the center or the agency.

Q: What will you miss most when you retire?
A: I will definitely miss the staff and the operational aspect — the science, the forecasting and collaborations. It is going to be difficult to sit at home during the next hurricane landfall threat. One regret that I will have is not having the pleasure of working with some of our younger meteorologists on staff. Some of these sharp folks I can't promote fast enough.

Q: What advice do you have for aspiring meteorologists?
A: I would like to tell them and others in forecasting that it is not all about the meteorology. I want to change outcomes. In the hurricane program, that means saving lives. You can't do that with the meteorology alone. You have to motivate people, especially the decision makers, to take the right action during the extreme event. Relationships with emergency managers and the media are extremely important.

Q: Any advice for the next director of the NOAA National Hurricane Center?
A: I asked former NHC Director Bob Sheets for advice years ago. Bob said to maintain a strong relationship with the emergency management community and the media. That was good advice and I will pass that along to the next director. I would add that the battle against the hurricane is won outside the hurricane season. And the message needs to stay consistent. We want every individual, every family, every business and every community to have a hurricane plan in place and be able to execute that plan before the next hurricane season.

Relevant Web Sites
NOAA Hurricane Theme Page

NOAA National Hurricane Center

NOAA National Weather Service

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NOAA National Weather Service Public Affairs, (301) 713-0622