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NOAA IS ENCOURAGING EVERYONE TO PREPARE FOR HURRICANE SEASON

Be hurricane prepared.July 30, 2006 — NOAA is ready as we enter the peak of the North Atlantic Hurricane Season and we want to make sure you are as well. While NOAA will again provide the best possible forecasts, it is vital that everyone living in hurricane prone areas be prepared. Max Mayfield, director of the NOAA National Hurricane Center says, “The message for everyone is the same, whether we have an active season or a below-normal season, you’ve got to have a plan in place and you’ve got to be ready to implement that plan. Remember one hurricane hitting where you live is enough to make it a bad season."

How is NOAA Prepared for Hurricane Season
This year, NOAA committed more than $300 million dollars to track and forecast hurricanes. In FY 2007, NOAA requested an additional $109 million dollars for hurricane-related investments. Currently, NOAA is focusing on further improving hurricane track and intensity forecasting through better observations, enhancing its modeling efforts (including those related to storm surge and inland flooding) and the continuation of Joint Hurricane Testbed to advance the transfer of new research and technology into operational hurricane prediction.

Max Mayfield, director of the NOAA National Hurricane Center.Improving NOAA equipment is also critical. NOAA aircraft, the W-P3 Orions and the Gulf Stream IV, provide essential observations and data critical to the NOAA National Hurricane Center forecasters and supplement the U.S. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flights. The $14.2 million dollars NOAA received in FY 2006 supplemental appropriations to improve future aircraft service will add an additional W-P3 in 2007, and upgrade the radar and instrumentation on all of NOAA’s aircraft.

NOAA also works year-round with federal, state and local emergency managers; educating them about weather effects from hurricanes, while they educate NOAA about response issues and their challenges. It is a constant learning process and the key is working together to ensure that the public takes appropriate action this hurricane season.

School children visiting the NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft while on a stop in Mobile, Ala., on May 3, 2006. Photo Credit: NOAA .Most preparedness activity and outreach takes place outside hurricane season. In May of 2006, as part of NOAA’s ongoing mission to enhance economic security and national safety, the NOAA National Weather Service again led its annual Hurricane Awareness Tour — this year focusing on Gulf Coast states. The tour helped raise awareness about the potential effects from a hurricane landfall with FEMA, local governments, emergency managers, schools, the public and the media working as a team to increase hurricane awareness and encourage preparedness in this vulnerable area of the nation.

NOAA Provides Critical Support after Hurricane Landfall
NOAA is well known for its services prior to a hurricane landfall, but the agency also provides vital services after the storm. NOAA provides aerial images and real-time storm tide level information to emergency responders, utilizes satellite imagery to determine coastal impacts, assesses hazardous material spills, and surveys critical ports and waterways.

NOAA image of flooding and hurricane forecaster.NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
In light of the record-breaking 2005 hurricane activity, it is not surprising that more people than ever are interested in the NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Outlook for this hurricane season, which started on June 1 and goes through November 30. NOAA typically provides an initial prediction at the start of the season and an update in August, just before the “peak” of the hurricane season — the average peak of hurricane activity coincides with the warmest water temperatures, from mid-August to late October. This year the update will be provided the second week of August.

The past two years might lead one to assume — given the recent major hurricanes like Charley, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2004 and 2005 — that Florida and the Gulf Coast are likely targets again this season, but there is no way to know for sure.

NOAA hurricane images of a house being swept away by storm surge and palm trees blowing in the wind.The truth is right now no one knows exactly what areas of the coast, or which states or locations within those states, if any, will be impacted by hurricanes in 2006. Although NOAA has made great strides in improving hurricane track forecasting — NOAA’s five-day forecasts are now as accurate as three-day forecasts were 15 years ago — it is not possible to know months in advance when or where hurricanes are going to strike. The state of the science is simply not advanced enough at this time to do that.

2005 was a record setting hurricane season with 28 storms, of which 15 became hurricanes — seven of those 15 hurricanes were “major” hurricanes. The nation saw all too vividly the destruction and devastation hurricanes can cause. This is why it is important not to focus only on the 2006 hurricane outlook (which only serves as a guide as to what to expect), but also on the actions you can take to prepare for the possibility of a hurricane threatening your area this hurricane season — Although you can not stop a hurricane, you can certainly prepare for one.

Hurricane Hazards
Hurricane hazards come in many forms: storm surge, high winds, tornadoes and — often the most deadly — inland flooding. This means it is important for your family to have a plan that includes all of these hazards. Look carefully at the safety actions associated with each type of hurricane hazard and prepare your family disaster plan accordingly. But remember — this is only a guide. The first and most important thing anyone should do when facing a hurricane threat is to use common sense.

NOAA image of storm shutters and hurricane preparedness kit.How to Prepare
"Preventing the loss of life and minimizing the damage to property from hurricanes are responsibilities that are shared by all," said Mayfield. “The most important thing that you can do is to be informed and prepared.”

Disaster Prevention should include:

  • Developing a Family Plan: Your family's plan should be based on your vulnerability to the hurricane hazards. You should keep a written plan and share your plan with other friends or family.
  • Creating a Disaster Supply Kit: There are certain items you need to have regardless of where you ride out a hurricane. The disaster supply kit is a useful tool when you evacuate, as well as making you as safe as possible in your home.
  • Having a Place to Go: Know your home's vulnerability to storm surge, flooding and wind. Locate a safe room or the safest areas in your home for each hurricane hazard and be prepared to evacuate if need be.
  • Securing your Home: Disaster prevention includes modifying your home to strengthen it against storms so that you can be as safe as possible.
  • Having a Pet Plan: Make a plan now for what to do with your pets if you need to evacuate.

NOAA image of hurricane evacuation sign.Should I Evacuate?
One of the most important decisions you will have to make is "should I evacuate?" If you are instructed to evacuate, you should do so without delay. But unless you live in a coastal or low-lying area, an area that floods frequently, or in manufactured housing, it is unlikely that emergency managers will ask you to evacuate. That means that it is important for you and your family to HAVE A PLAN that makes you as safe as possible in your home.

You may also want to review “Hurricane Myths and Misconceptions” at the bottom of this article to learn more about hurricanes and what you should do to prepare for this hurricane season.

Closing Thought
The bottom line is that all coastal states and territories are at risk this hurricane season. Everyone along the coast must be prepared, well in advance, to protect their lives and property in the event of a hurricane.

HURRICANE MYTHS AND MISCONCEPTIONS

NOAA image showing NOAA entities involved in hurricane preparedness.Hurricanes Generally Occur During Hurricane Season, But Can Occur at Other Times of the Year

  • Myth: Hurricanes/tropical storms strike only during the official hurricane season of June 1 through November 30.
  • Truth: Hurricanes/tropical storms sometimes occur before or after the hurricane season. For example, Tropical Storm Anna and Hurricane Lili occurred in April 2003 and late December 1984, respectively. Likewise, in January 2006, Hurricane Zeta (though no threat to land) loomed in the Atlantic Ocean.

Weather Conditions Can Change Quickly — Don’t Wait until the Last Minute to Evacuate

  • Myth: My area is under an evacuation order, but the weather looks great right now so I can wait until the weather gets bad before I evacuate.
  • Truth: This can be one of the most dangerous decisions you can make. You must realize that predicting that where a storm is going — its track — has a degree of uncertainty, and waiting until the last minute can leave you with no place to go to escape a storm's fury (if the storm does not behave according to forecast). Evacuation orders are given based on the best information available and are issued early enough to allow sufficient time for people to get to shelters. Don’t take chances with your life. Gather your important papers, your hurricane survival kit, prescriptions and cash (as you may not be able to use credit cards after the storm). Secure your home and leave as quickly and safely as possible.

The Size of a Hurricane Does Not Necessarily Correlate with Its Intensity

  • NOAA image of Hurricane Katrina approaching land on 8/25/05.Myth: The larger a tropical cyclone is, the more intense it will be.
  • Truth: No. There is very little association between hurricane intensity (either measured by maximum sustained winds or by central pressure) and size (measured by radius of tropical storm force winds). Hurricane Andrew is a good example of a very intense tropical cyclone (922 mb central pressure and 165 mph sustained winds at landfall in Florida) that was also relatively small (tropical storm force winds extended out only about 90-miles from the center). Likewise, intense rainfall is not directly related to the wind speed of tropical cyclones. In fact, some of the greatest rainfall amounts occur from weaker storms that drift slowly or stall over an area.

NOAA image showing hurricane structure from aerial view.It Is Dangerous To Venture Out Into the Eye of the Storm

  • Myth: It is safe to go outside during the “eye” of the hurricane.
  • Truth: It is not safe to go outside during the “eye” of the hurricane. You have no way of knowing how long the light winds will last. Strong winds will return very quickly from the opposite direction. STAY INDOORS.

Inland Areas Are Also at Risk from Hurricanes

  • Myth: Only coastal areas are at risk from hurricanes.
  • Truth: It is important to remember that a hurricane is not just a coastal event. The strong winds, heavy rains, tornadoes and inland flooding from weakening tropical systems can spread well inland and cause tremendous damage. Tropical Storm Allison (2001), for example, produced extremely heavy rainfall (nearly 37-inches) and catastrophic floods in the Houston, Texas area. Allison then acquired subtropical characteristics and continued to produce heavy rainfall and flooding near its track from Louisiana eastward to North Carolina, and then northward along the U.S. east coast to Massachusetts. Forty-one deaths were directly related to the heavy rain, flooding, tornadoes and high surf. Damage estimates reported by the Federal Emergency Management Agency were near $5 billion dollars, with approximately $4.8 billion dollars in the Houston metropolitan area alone. Other hurricanes that caused extensive inland damage included: Hurricane Floyd (1999), Tropical Storm Alberto (1994), Tropical Storm Claudette (1979) and Hurricane Agnes (1972).

Hurricanes Dissipate over Land Because they are No Longer Fueled by the Ocean’s Heat and Moisture

  • NOAA image of Gerry Bell, David L. Johnson and Max Mayfield at the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season  Update.Myth: It is the friction over land that contributes toward the dissipation of tropical cyclones.
  • Truth: No. During landfall, the increased friction over land acts — somewhat contradictory — to both decrease the sustained winds and also to increase the gusts felt at the surface. The sustained (one minute or longer average) winds are reduced because of the dampening effect of larger roughness over land (i.e. bushes, trees and houses over land versus a relatively smooth ocean). The gusts are stronger because turbulence increases and acts to bring faster winds down to the surface in short (a few seconds) bursts. However, after just a few hours, a tropical cyclone over land will begin to weaken rapidly — not because of friction — but because the storm lacks the moisture and heat sources that the ocean provided. This depletion of moisture and heat diminishes the tropical cyclone's ability to produce thunderstorms near the storm center. Without this convection, the storm rapidly fills.

Hurricane Andrew - Closeup of 1X4 board driven through the trunk of a royal palm.Hurricane Force Winds are Stronger and More Sustained than Other Types of Wind

  • Myth: Winds from a hurricane can not be much worse than that experienced during a summer thunderstorm.
  • Truth: While summer thunderstorms can produce wind gusts in excess of 60 miles per hour, the winds of a major hurricane can reach twice that speed — or even faster — and will be sustained for hours, much longer than a brief thunderstorm. Even 50 mph winds can do some damage, but the wind force increases at a much faster rate as the wind speed increases. Each time the wind speed is doubled, the wind force increases by a factor of four! If you triple the wind speed the force increases by NINE times! That means a 100 mph winds (a Category 2 hurricane) has four times the force of a 50 mph wind, and a 150 mph wind (a Category 4 hurricane) is nine times as strong as that of a 50 mph wind! Minimum hurricane strength winds of 74 mph have the ability to drive a piece of 2x4 lumber through a reinforced concrete wall four inches thick! A Category 2 hurricane, with winds of 96 to 110 miles per hour, can do considerable damage to roof structures and topple trees.


All of the Doors and Windows Should Be Closed (and Shuttered) Throughout the Duration of the Hurricane.

  • NOAA image showing proper installation of hurricane shutters.Myth: During a hurricane are you supposed to have the windows and doors on the storm side closed and the windows and doors on the lee side open.
  • Truth: No! All of the doors and windows should be closed (and shuttered) throughout the duration of the hurricane. The pressure differences between inside your house and outside in the storm do not build up enough to cause any damaging explosions. (No house is built airtight.) The winds in a hurricane are highly turbulent and an open window or door — even if in the lee side of the house — can be an open target to flying debris. All exterior windows should be boarded up with either wooden or metal shutters. On a related note, you should NOT tape your windows in preparation for a hurricane — it is a waste of time, effort and tape. It offers little strength to the glass and NO protection against flying debris. After the storm passes you will spend many a hot summer afternoon trying to scrape the old, baked-on tape off your windows (assuming they weren't shattered). Once a Hurricane Warning has been issued you would be better off spending your time putting up shutters over doors and windows.


Hurricane Andrew - Note contrast between neighborhoods The difference between good and best concrete block stucco construction Which would you choose?Taking Some Basic Precautions Can Significantly Reduce Damage from a Storm

  • Myth: I don’t need to prepare my house? When the big one comes, it’s going to be destroyed anyway.
  • Truth: While a hurricane's winds can destroy even the most solidly built structures, taking some basic precautions can significantly reduce damage from a storm. Damage assessment photos of areas devastated by hurricanes will often show one house standing, while a neighbor's lies in ruins. The difference? The owners of the house in good shape took some basic precautions to safeguard their property. Shuttering windows, bracing garage and entry doors and bringing in yard items can mean the difference between destruction and minor damage.
Section of coastline before Hurricane Hugo's storm surge hit Folly Beach, SC.
Section of coastline after Hurricane Hugo's storm surge hit Folly Beach, SC.
Section of coastline before and after Hurricane Hugo's storm surge hit Folly Beach, SC.

Storm Surge Is Water that Is Pushed Toward the Shore by the Force of the Winds Swirling Around the Storm

  • Myth: The low pressure in the tropical cyclone center causes storm surge.
  • Truth: No. Many people assume that the partial vacuum at the center of a tropical cyclone allows the ocean to rise up in response, thus causing the destructive storm surges as the cyclone makes landfall. This effect, in a 900-millibar central pressure tropical cyclone, would only be 1 meter (3 feet). The total storm surge for a tropical cyclone of this intensity can be from 6 to 10 meter (19 to 33 feet), or more. Most (more than 85 percent) of the storm surge is caused by winds pushing the ocean surface ahead of the storm on the right side of the track (left side of the track in the Southern Hemisphere). Note also that individual storm surges are also dependent upon the coastal topography, angle of incidence of landfall, speed of tropical cyclone motion, as well as the wind strength.
Storm surge along a steep sloping shoreline.
Storm surge along a shallow and steep sloping shoreline.

Storm Surge Can Impact Areas Far Inland

  • Myth: Storm surge will not impact me, I am located two whole blocks from the beach!
  • Truth: Storm surge is a wind driven dome of water that rushes inland ahead of, and to the right of, the center of a hurricane. The dome can reach to 25-30 feet in the right place on the coastline, in a Category 5 land falling hurricane! It will NOT stop in a block, or two blocks, or in some cases, for miles! The NOAA National Hurricane Center uses its SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model to predict surge inundation. Emergency managers use the data from the SLOSH model to determine which areas must be evacuated for storm surge. Storm surge also affects rivers and inland lakes, potentially increasing the area that must be evacuated.

It Is Not Always Safe to Evacuate Up In Tall Buildings

  • Myth: The storm surge is only going to be 15 or 20 feet at worst. My condo is on an upper floor. I’m riding the storm out here.
  • Truth: Vertical evacuation, or escaping the rising storm surge by going to the upper stories of a building, is not always a good idea. Wind speeds increase the higher you go, so you may be evacuating into a more dangerous place. Plus, the high winds and water will make getting help to you nearly impossible after the storm passes.


Relevant Web Sites
ORAL TESTIMONY OF VICE ADMIRAL CONRAD C. LAUTENBACHER, JR. U.S. NAVY (RET.)
UNDER SECRETARY OF COMMERCE FOR OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE AND ADMINISTRATOR FOR NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE. OVERSIGHT HEARING ON “2006 HURRICANE SEASON.” BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, JUSTICE AND SCIENCE UNITED STATES SENATE JUNE 7, 2006

NOAA National Weather Service Hurricane Preparedness Week

NOAA Hurricane Theme Page

Hurricane Hazards

NOAA Hurricane Research Division: FAQs

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

StormReady

Hurricane Shutter Instructions

NOAA’S HURRICANE ASSISTANCE SPANS MULTIPLE LEVELS
– BEFORE, DURING AND EVEN AFTER THE STORM

NOAA ATTRIBUTES RECENT INCREASE IN HURRICANE ACTIVITY
TO NATURALLY OCCURRING MULTI-DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY

STORM SURGE: A “RISING” CONCERN AMONG COASTAL RESIDENTS

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