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NOAA
IS ENCOURAGING EVERYONE TO PREPARE FOR HURRICANE SEASON
July
30, 2006 — NOAA is ready as we
enter the peak of the North
Atlantic Hurricane Season and we want to make sure you are as well.
While NOAA will again provide the best possible forecasts,
it is vital that everyone living in hurricane
prone areas be prepared.
Max
Mayfield, director of the NOAA
National Hurricane Center says, “The message for everyone is
the same, whether we have an active season or a below-normal season, you’ve
got to have a plan in place and you’ve got to be ready to implement
that plan. Remember one hurricane hitting where you live is enough to
make it a bad season."
How
is NOAA Prepared for Hurricane Season
This
year, NOAA committed more than $300 million dollars to track and forecast
hurricanes. In FY 2007, NOAA requested an additional $109 million dollars
for hurricane-related investments. Currently, NOAA is focusing on further
improving hurricane track
and intensity forecasting
through better observations,
enhancing its modeling
efforts (including those related to storm surge and inland flooding) and
the continuation of Joint
Hurricane Testbed to advance the transfer of new research
and technology into operational hurricane prediction.
Improving
NOAA equipment is also critical. NOAA
aircraft, the W-P3
Orions and the Gulf
Stream IV, provide essential observations and data critical to the
NOAA National Hurricane Center forecasters and supplement the U.S. Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance flights. The $14.2 million dollars NOAA received
in FY 2006 supplemental appropriations to improve future aircraft service
will add an additional W-P3 in 2007, and upgrade the radar and instrumentation
on all of NOAA’s aircraft.
NOAA also
works year-round with federal, state and local emergency managers; educating
them about weather effects from hurricanes, while they educate NOAA about
response issues and their challenges. It is a constant learning process
and the key is working together to ensure that the public takes appropriate
action this hurricane season.
Most
preparedness activity and outreach takes place outside hurricane season.
In May of 2006, as part of NOAA’s ongoing mission to enhance economic
security and national safety, the NOAA National Weather Service again
led its annual Hurricane
Awareness Tour — this year focusing on Gulf Coast states. The
tour helped raise awareness about the potential effects from a hurricane
landfall with FEMA, local governments, emergency managers, schools, the
public and the media working as a team to increase hurricane
awareness and encourage preparedness in this vulnerable area of the
nation.
NOAA
Provides Critical Support after Hurricane Landfall
NOAA
is well known for its services prior to a hurricane landfall, but the
agency also provides vital services after the
storm. NOAA provides aerial
images and real-time storm
tide level information to emergency responders, utilizes satellite
imagery to determine coastal impacts, assesses hazardous material
spills, and surveys
critical ports and waterways.
NOAA’s
Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
In
light of the record-breaking
2005 hurricane activity, it is not surprising that more people than
ever are interested in the NOAA
Atlantic Hurricane Outlook for this hurricane season, which started
on June 1 and goes through November 30. NOAA typically provides an initial
prediction at the start of the season and an update in August, just
before the “peak” of the hurricane season — the average
peak of hurricane activity coincides with the warmest water temperatures,
from mid-August to late October. This year the update will be provided
the second week of August.
The past
two years might lead one to assume — given the recent major hurricanes
like Charley,
Ivan,
Jeanne,
Dennis,
Katrina,
Rita and
Wilma
in 2004 and 2005 — that Florida and the Gulf Coast are likely targets
again this season, but there is no way to know for sure.
The
truth is right now no one knows exactly what areas of the coast, or which
states or locations within those states, if any, will be impacted by hurricanes
in 2006. Although NOAA has made great strides in improving hurricane track
forecasting — NOAA’s five-day
forecasts are now as accurate as three-day forecasts were 15 years
ago — it is not possible to know months in advance when or where
hurricanes are going to strike. The state of the science is simply not
advanced enough at this time to do that.
2005
was a record setting hurricane season with 28 storms, of which 15
became hurricanes — seven of those 15 hurricanes were “major”
hurricanes. The nation saw all too vividly the destruction and devastation
hurricanes can cause. This is why it is important not to focus only on
the 2006
hurricane outlook (which only serves as a guide as to what to expect),
but also on the actions you can take to prepare for the possibility of
a hurricane threatening your area this hurricane season — Although
you can not stop a hurricane, you can certainly prepare for one.
Hurricane
Hazards
Hurricane
hazards come in many forms: storm
surge, high
winds, tornadoes
and — often the most deadly — inland flooding.
This means it is important for your family to have a plan that includes
all of these hazards. Look carefully at the safety actions associated
with each type of hurricane hazard and prepare your family disaster
plan accordingly. But remember — this is only a guide. The first
and most important thing anyone should do when facing a hurricane threat
is to use common sense.
How
to Prepare
"Preventing
the loss of life and minimizing the damage to property from hurricanes
are responsibilities that are shared by all," said Mayfield. “The
most important thing that you can do is to be informed and prepared.”
Disaster
Prevention should include:
- Developing
a Family Plan: Your family's plan should
be based on your vulnerability to the hurricane hazards. You should
keep a written plan and share your plan with other friends or family.
-
Creating
a Disaster Supply Kit:
There are certain items you need to have regardless of where you ride
out a hurricane. The disaster supply kit is a useful tool when you evacuate,
as well as making you as safe as possible in your home.
- Having
a Place to Go:
Know your home's vulnerability to storm surge, flooding and wind. Locate
a safe room or the safest areas in your home for each hurricane hazard
and be prepared to evacuate if need be.
- Securing
your Home: Disaster prevention includes
modifying your home to strengthen it against storms so that you can
be as safe as possible.
-
Having
a Pet Plan:
Make a plan now for what to do with your pets if you need to evacuate.
Should
I Evacuate?
One
of the most important decisions you will have to make is "should
I evacuate?" If you are instructed to evacuate, you should do so
without delay. But unless you live in a coastal
or low-lying area, an area that floods frequently, or in manufactured
housing, it is unlikely that emergency managers will ask you to evacuate.
That means that it is important for you and your family to HAVE A PLAN
that makes you as safe as possible in your home.
You may also
want to review “Hurricane Myths and Misconceptions”
at the bottom of this article to learn more about hurricanes and what
you should do to prepare for this hurricane season.
Closing
Thought
The
bottom line is that all coastal states and territories are at risk this
hurricane season. Everyone along the coast must be prepared, well in advance,
to protect their lives and property in the event of a hurricane.
| HURRICANE
MYTHS AND MISCONCEPTIONS
Hurricanes
Generally Occur During Hurricane Season, But Can Occur at Other
Times of the Year
- Myth:
Hurricanes/tropical storms strike only during the official hurricane
season of June 1 through November 30.
- Truth:
Hurricanes/tropical storms sometimes occur before or after the
hurricane season. For example, Tropical
Storm Anna and Hurricane Lili occurred in April 2003 and late
December 1984, respectively. Likewise, in January 2006, Hurricane
Zeta (though no threat to land) loomed in the Atlantic Ocean.
Weather
Conditions Can Change Quickly — Don’t Wait until the
Last Minute to Evacuate
- Myth:
My area is under an evacuation order, but the weather looks great
right now so I can wait until the weather gets bad before I evacuate.
- Truth:
This can be one of the most dangerous decisions you can make.
You must realize that predicting that where a storm is going —
its track — has a degree of uncertainty, and waiting until
the last minute can leave you with no place to go to escape a
storm's fury (if the storm does not behave according to forecast).
Evacuation orders are given based on the best information available
and are issued early enough to allow sufficient time for people
to get to shelters. Don’t take chances with your life. Gather
your important papers, your hurricane
survival kit, prescriptions and cash (as you may not be able
to use credit cards after the storm). Secure your home and leave
as quickly and safely as possible.
The
Size of a Hurricane Does Not Necessarily Correlate with Its Intensity
Myth:
The larger a tropical cyclone is, the more intense it will be.
- Truth:
No. There is very little association between hurricane intensity
(either measured by maximum sustained winds or by central pressure)
and size (measured by radius of tropical storm force winds). Hurricane
Andrew is a good example of a very intense tropical cyclone (922
mb central pressure and 165 mph sustained winds at landfall in
Florida) that was also relatively small (tropical storm force
winds extended out only about 90-miles from the center). Likewise,
intense rainfall is not directly related to the wind speed of
tropical cyclones. In fact, some of the greatest rainfall amounts
occur from weaker storms that drift slowly or stall over an area.
It
Is Dangerous To Venture Out Into the Eye of the Storm
- Myth:
It is safe to go outside during the “eye” of the hurricane.
- Truth:
It is not safe to go outside during the “eye” of the
hurricane. You have no way of knowing how long the light winds
will last. Strong winds will return very quickly from the opposite
direction. STAY INDOORS.
Inland
Areas Are Also at Risk from Hurricanes
- Myth:
Only coastal areas are at risk from hurricanes.
- Truth:
It is important to remember that a hurricane is not just a coastal
event. The strong winds, heavy rains, tornadoes and inland flooding
from weakening tropical systems can spread well inland and cause
tremendous damage. Tropical
Storm Allison (2001), for example, produced extremely heavy
rainfall (nearly 37-inches) and catastrophic floods in the Houston,
Texas area. Allison then acquired subtropical characteristics
and continued to produce heavy rainfall and flooding near its
track from Louisiana eastward to North Carolina, and then northward
along the U.S. east coast to Massachusetts. Forty-one deaths were
directly related to the heavy rain, flooding, tornadoes and high
surf. Damage estimates reported by the Federal Emergency Management
Agency were near $5 billion dollars, with approximately $4.8 billion
dollars in the Houston metropolitan area alone. Other hurricanes
that caused extensive inland damage included: Hurricane
Floyd (1999), Tropical
Storm Alberto (1994), Tropical
Storm Claudette (1979) and Hurricane
Agnes (1972).
Hurricanes
Dissipate over Land Because they are No Longer Fueled by the Ocean’s
Heat and Moisture
Myth:
It is the friction over land that contributes toward the dissipation
of tropical cyclones.
- Truth:
No. During landfall, the increased friction over land acts —
somewhat contradictory — to both decrease the sustained
winds and also to increase the gusts felt at the surface. The
sustained (one minute or longer average) winds are reduced because
of the dampening effect of larger roughness over land (i.e. bushes,
trees and houses over land versus a relatively smooth ocean).
The gusts are stronger because turbulence increases and acts to
bring faster winds down to the surface in short (a few seconds)
bursts. However, after just a few hours, a tropical cyclone over
land will begin to weaken rapidly — not because of friction
— but because the storm lacks the moisture and heat sources
that the ocean provided. This depletion of moisture and heat diminishes
the tropical cyclone's ability to produce thunderstorms near the
storm center. Without this convection, the storm rapidly fills.
Hurricane
Force Winds are Stronger and More Sustained than Other Types of
Wind
- Myth:
Winds from a hurricane can not be much worse than that experienced
during a summer thunderstorm.
- Truth:
While summer thunderstorms can produce wind gusts in excess of
60 miles per hour, the winds of a major hurricane can reach twice
that speed — or even faster — and will be sustained
for hours, much longer than a brief thunderstorm. Even 50 mph
winds can do some damage, but the wind force increases at a much
faster rate as the wind speed increases. Each time the wind speed
is doubled, the wind force increases by a factor of four! If you
triple the wind speed the force increases by NINE times! That
means a 100 mph winds (a Category
2 hurricane) has four times the force of a 50 mph wind, and
a 150 mph wind (a Category
4 hurricane) is nine times as strong as that of a 50 mph wind!
Minimum hurricane strength winds of 74 mph have the ability to
drive a piece of 2x4 lumber through a reinforced concrete wall
four inches thick! A Category 2 hurricane, with winds of 96 to
110 miles per hour, can do considerable damage to roof structures
and topple trees.
All of the Doors and Windows Should Be Closed (and Shuttered)
Throughout the Duration of the Hurricane.
Myth:
During a hurricane are you supposed to have the windows and doors
on the storm side closed and the windows and doors on the lee
side open.
- Truth:
No! All of the doors and windows should be closed (and shuttered)
throughout the duration of the hurricane. The pressure differences
between inside your house and outside in the storm do not build
up enough to cause any damaging explosions. (No house is built
airtight.) The winds in a hurricane are highly turbulent and an
open window or door — even if in the lee side of the house
— can be an open target to flying debris. All exterior windows
should be boarded up with either wooden or metal shutters. On
a related note, you should NOT tape your windows in preparation
for a hurricane — it is a waste of time, effort and tape.
It offers little strength to the glass and NO protection against
flying debris. After the storm passes you will spend many a hot
summer afternoon trying to scrape the old, baked-on tape off your
windows (assuming they weren't shattered). Once a Hurricane Warning
has been issued you would be better off spending your time putting
up shutters over doors and windows.
Taking
Some Basic Precautions Can Significantly Reduce Damage from a Storm
-
Myth:
I don’t need to prepare my house? When the big one comes,
it’s going to be destroyed anyway.
- Truth:
While a hurricane's winds can destroy even the most solidly built
structures, taking some basic precautions can significantly reduce
damage from a storm. Damage assessment photos of areas devastated
by hurricanes will often show one house standing, while a neighbor's
lies in ruins. The difference? The owners of the house in good
shape took some basic precautions to safeguard their property.
Shuttering windows, bracing garage and entry doors and bringing
in yard items can mean the difference between destruction and
minor damage.
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Section
of coastline before and after Hurricane Hugo's storm surge
hit Folly Beach, SC. |
Storm
Surge Is Water that Is Pushed Toward the Shore by the Force of the
Winds Swirling Around the Storm
-
Myth: The low pressure in the tropical cyclone
center causes storm surge.
- Truth:
No. Many people assume that the partial vacuum at the center of
a tropical cyclone allows the ocean to rise up in response, thus
causing the destructive storm surges as the cyclone makes landfall.
This effect, in a 900-millibar central pressure tropical cyclone,
would only be 1 meter (3 feet). The total storm surge for a tropical
cyclone of this intensity can be from 6 to 10 meter (19 to 33
feet), or more. Most (more than 85 percent) of the storm surge
is caused by winds pushing the ocean surface ahead of the storm
on the right side of the track (left side of the track in the
Southern Hemisphere). Note also that individual storm surges are
also dependent upon the coastal topography, angle of incidence
of landfall, speed of tropical cyclone motion, as well as the
wind strength.
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Storm
surge along a shallow and steep sloping shoreline. |
Storm
Surge Can Impact Areas Far Inland
- Myth:
Storm surge will not impact me, I am located two whole blocks
from the beach!
- Truth:
Storm surge is a wind driven dome of water that rushes inland
ahead of, and to the right of, the center of a hurricane. The
dome can reach to 25-30 feet in the right place on the coastline,
in a Category
5 land falling hurricane! It will NOT stop in a block, or
two blocks, or in some cases, for miles! The NOAA
National Hurricane Center uses its SLOSH
(Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model to predict
surge inundation. Emergency managers use the data from the SLOSH
model to determine which areas must be evacuated for storm surge.
Storm surge also affects rivers and inland lakes, potentially
increasing the area that must be evacuated.
It
Is Not Always Safe to Evacuate Up In Tall Buildings
-
Myth: The storm surge is only going to be 15
or 20 feet at worst. My condo is on an upper floor. I’m
riding the storm out here.
- Truth:
Vertical evacuation, or escaping the rising storm surge by going
to the upper stories of a building, is not always a good idea.
Wind speeds increase the higher you go, so you may be evacuating
into a more dangerous place. Plus, the high winds and water will
make getting help to you nearly impossible after the storm passes.
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Relevant
Web Sites
ORAL
TESTIMONY OF VICE ADMIRAL CONRAD C. LAUTENBACHER, JR. U.S. NAVY (RET.)
UNDER SECRETARY OF COMMERCE FOR OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE AND ADMINISTRATOR
FOR NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION U. S. DEPARTMENT OF
COMMERCE. OVERSIGHT HEARING ON “2006 HURRICANE SEASON.” BEFORE
THE COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, JUSTICE AND
SCIENCE UNITED STATES SENATE JUNE 7, 2006
NOAA
National Weather Service Hurricane Preparedness Week
NOAA
Hurricane Theme Page
Hurricane
Hazards
NOAA
Hurricane Research Division: FAQs
The
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
StormReady
Hurricane
Shutter Instructions
NOAA’S
HURRICANE ASSISTANCE SPANS MULTIPLE LEVELS
– BEFORE, DURING AND EVEN AFTER THE STORM
NOAA
ATTRIBUTES RECENT INCREASE IN HURRICANE ACTIVITY
TO NATURALLY OCCURRING MULTI-DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY
STORM
SURGE: A “RISING” CONCERN AMONG COASTAL RESIDENTS
Media
Contact:
NOAA
Weather Service Public Affairs, (301) 713-0622
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