May 15, 2006 — With the arrival of summer marking the peak of the ground level/tropospheric ozone season, the NOAA National Weather Service and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are launching Air Quality Awareness Days from May 15 to 19, 2006, to encourage Americans to “Be Air Aware” and check their local air quality forecasts as they plan their daily activities.

NOAA’s national air quality forecast guidance capabilities originated in 2002 and continue to be developed and implemented in partnership with EPA, combining the two agencies’ strengths in air quality measurements and atmospheric modeling. State and local air quality agencies, as well as the private sector, are also essential partners in the development of the national air quality forecast guidance. The goal of the national air quality forecast guidance capability is to provide daily, hour-by-hour air quality forecasts that are accurate and timely enough for people to take action to limit the harmful effects of air pollution. Recent forecast improvements by NOAA and EPA are making air quality forecasts better and more accessible than ever before.

"Improving air quality forecasting abilities at the national level helps cities across the country provide their citizens the most accurate, up-to-date air quality predictions available," said Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, U.S. Air Force (Ret.), director of the NOAA National Weather Service. "These forecasts help millions of people protect their health on days when ozone levels are high." (Click NOAA image for larger view of sample air quality forecast guidance. Click here for high resolution version, which is a large file. Please credit “NOAA.”)

It has been estimated that for each one percent reduction in adverse health impacts that air quality forecasting could provide, more than one billion dollars could be saved every year. To help the nation realize these benefits, Congress directed NOAA to provide operational air quality forecasts for the nation, with funding for operational developments beginning in FY 2003.

Progress toward a National Air Quality Forecasting Capability
The phased implementation for the NOAA national air quality forecast guidance capability called for the initial development and deployment of a next-day ozone prediction for the northeastern United States by September of 2004. Since that initial deployment, the operational air quality forecast capability has been expanded and now covers the entire Eastern half of the United States. This summer, NOAA is planning to provide ground-level ozone predictions, on an experimental basis for all of the lower forty-eight states. After operations readiness criteria have been successfully demonstrated during experimental testing, the expanded ozone forecast guidance products will be added to NOAA’s operational product suite. It is anticipated that the air quality forecast guidance capability will be extended to the entire United States (including Hawaii and Alaska) by 2009. In the longer term, a forecast model for airborne particulate matter will be developed and the forecast lead-time will be extended to two days or beyond, as accuracy and resources permit.

Increased Popularity of Air Quality Forecasts
Over the past decade, more state and local agencies have begun to make air quality forecasts to alert the public to pollution conditions. Today, more than 300 cities nationwide are issuing air quality alerts. Many for the first time are able to take advantage of the kind of high-powered national forecasting technology and guidance that supports local weather forecasts, by using NOAA’s new air quality forecast guidance, along with real-time observations of weather and air quality, as a principal tool to guide their forecasts.

Air quality agencies are the local authorities with the responsibility — and in some cases the mandate — to predict and communicate local air quality information to the public, encourage voluntary actions and issue health advisories. The air quality forecast guidance being produced by NOAA/EPA helps local air quality forecasters by providing detailed hour-by-hour predictions, at high spatial resolution, of ground-level ozone across their communities. In other words, the NOAA/EPA partnership provides more sophisticated tools and advances the power of air quality forecasting. For localities that are already forecasting air quality, the NOAA forecasting guidance improves forecasters’ ability to predict the onset, severity and duration of poor air quality. For other communities, the NOAA/EPA air quality forecasting guidance represents the first time that air quality predictions have been available in their area.

Benefits of Air Quality Forecasting
For many individuals — especially children, outdoor workers and those who suffer from asthma and other respiratory/cardiovascular problems — knowing forecasted levels of pollution can make a significant difference in the quality of their lives and how they plan their daily activities. Other stakeholders, such as environmental policy makers and resource managers, also use air quality forecast guidance to reduce health impacts, support effective decision-making, better manage emissions reduction programs, anticipate visibility degradation and develop other environmental protection steps.

NOAA’s Air Quality Forecasting Guidance Capabilities
NOAA’s air quality forecasting guidance capabilities can best be described as a linked numerical prediction system encompassing the methods, tools and models that are used to provide predictions of air quality conditions that are then used by forecasters to produce a final air quality forecast. It is more than just a national air quality model since it includes the information that goes into the forecast model (i.e., longer-term improvements, climatological information, real-time weather information and some real-time emissions data); product generation, delivery and verification; and outreach/feedback links. Unlike previous/other air quality forecasts, which primarily provide a single-value worst-case next-day air quality forecast for a single city based on simple statistical techniques, NOAA’s air quality guidance gives information for those in cities — and suburbs alike, for all hours of the day/night — so all individuals (especially those at risk) can plan their activities to avoid exposure to poor air quality.

This information is on NOAA’s operational dataservers, providing information about the onset, severity and duration of poor air quality currently to more than 180 million people (including the general public and state and local air quality forecasters). This information, converted to EPA’s health-based Air Quality Index (AQI), is also available on EPA’s AIRNow Web site. These expanded forecasts are the next step toward providing air quality forecast information nationwide.

The First Step in Developing National Air Quality Forecasting Capabilities
Following Congressional direction, the NOAA National Weather Service began developing and testing its national air quality forecast guidance capabilities during 2003. Specifically, the NOAA National Weather Service (in collaboration with NOAA Ocean and Atmospheric Research) began integrating and testing an air quality forecast model system as a first step towards planned operational deployment of air quality guidance over the Northeastern United States in September 2004.

The prototype air quality forecast capability linked a version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ), developed by NOAA/EPA researchers, with the Eta mesoscale weather prediction model, running on the NOAA National Center for Environmental Prediction’s operational Central Computing System. The CMAQ model simulates various chemical and physical processes that are important for modeling atmospheric trace gas transport, transformations and distributions. Input data for the air quality forecast capability included NOAA National Weather Service weather data (meteorological information such as current and predicted temperature, humidity, winds, cloudiness and precipitation), as well as EPA national emissions inventory and monitoring data, as per NOAA-EPA agreements signed by DOC and EPA in May of 2003. This guidance, issued twice daily (at 9:00 a.m. and 1:30 p.m. EDT) serves as a standard tool, ultimately nationwide, for public, private, state and local forecasters who provide tailored air quality forecasts for their communities, in terms of EPA’s health-based air quality index. Hour-by-hour ground-level ozone predictions are provided through midnight next-day, at 12 km grid resolution. Graphical forecast guidance products are also provided at 5km grid resolution, with zoom and tabular data display features. In the initial stage, the numerical air quality forecast predictions provided next-day forecast guidance for the northeastern United States, as the first step of what will continue to grow, over the next several years, into a national operational air quality forecast capability. (Click NOAA image for larger view of major model components in the national air quality forecast capability. Click here for high resolution version, which is a large file. Please credit “NOAA.”)

Expansion of Air Quality Forecast System in 2005
The following summer, experimental ozone predictions were tested over a domain about three times larger than the initial capability. Improvements in emissions estimates, atmospheric transport simulation, and model linkage were tested in the experimental system, to achieve the required accuracy in real-time ground-level ozone predictions over the larger domain. In August 2005, deployment readiness criteria had been demonstrated, and NOAA expanded and enhanced the air quality forecasts produced operationally to serve the entire eastern part of the United States. Forecast information for ground-level ozone that was previously only available for the northeastern United States now included areas from just east of the Rocky Mountains to the Atlantic and Gulf coasts (i.e., Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Texas). (Click NOAA image for larger view of the flow chart showing the transition to operations for the national air quality forecast capability. Click here for high resolution version, which is a large file. Please credit “NOAA.”)

The Future of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability
In order to expand air quality guidance capability across the entire nation, additional testing and model improvements are necessary. This summer, NOAA is testing ground-level ozone predictions, on an experimental basis, over all of the lower forty-eight states. Other upgrades to the operational system now running over the Eastern United States, in addition to incremental improvements to optimize model accuracy and performance, include transitioning the capability from using the Eta to the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) mesoscale weather model system (2006), and improving the simulations of vertical mixing and chemical boundary conditions. Information on additional chemical species — emissions, transformations, and transport/deposition — must be included to extend the capability from predictions of ozone to airborne particulate matter forecasts (planned initial deployment over northeastern United States by 2012). Forecast intervals will be extended to a second-day and beyond, when the air quality model system achieves sufficient forecast accuracy within the constraints of computing resources and available run-time. Finally, additional pollutants will be added to the forecasts. The timing for these upgrades is contingent on successful pilot demonstrations and on funding availability.

Air Quality Forecast Guidance: Product Description
Maps of predicted ground-level ozone concentration are available as air quality forecasting guidance products on NOAA’s National Digital Guidance Database. Display options allow users to access the information with zoom-in or tabular listing features. As mentioned above, the guidance, issued twice daily, provides ground-level ozone predictions at hourly intervals through midnight next-day, at 12 km grid resolution. The guidance, converted to EPA’s health-based Air Quality Index, is also displayed on EPA’s AIRNow Web site. Public comments and suggestions on this new forecast tool are encouraged. (Click NOAA image for larger view of the national air quality forecast capability product. Please credit “NOAA.”)

Continuing Research for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability
The key to the national air quality forecast capability is the partnership of NOAA and EPA scientists, especially those at the NOAA National Center for Environmental Prediction (NOAA National Weather Service), NOAA Air Resources Laboratory and NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (both part of NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) and EPA’s Office of Research and Development. Together, they have successfully improved air quality prediction science and advance computer modeling technology, enabling the NOAA National Weather Service to simulate atmospheric conditions using data provided by EPA.

NOAA scientists have a long tradition of air quality research, analyzing the processes involved in creating, transporting and removing pollutant species in the atmosphere, with both observational and theoretical approaches. They also conduct periodic field campaigns (i.e., regional air quality assessments) to focus investigation on regions where NOAA research can help decision makers address specific air quality problems.

NOAA air quality researchers are working closely with the team building NOAA's air quality forecast capability to advance the science needed to expand the capability — from predictions of ground-level ozone over a limited domain to include the entire nation, and to include particulate matter with required accuracy and lead-time. They continue to improve simulations of atmospheric processes involved in the build-up of ground-level ozone, while expanding the simulations in operational prototypes to include the many more chemical pollutant species that directly, or through reactions in the atmosphere, makeup airborne particulate matter. NOAA scientists, in collaboration with peers in academia and other public and private institutions, are also investigating ways to include emissions information from a broader range of sources than are currently used to predict ozone: such as from episodic emissions from large fires and dust storms.

Development of a Smoke Forecast Guidance Tool
As a component of the eventual quantitative particulate matter forecast capability, NOAA has been testing experimentally (as of March 28, 2006) a daily smoke forecast tool. For this tool, the NOAA National Environmental Satellite and Data Information Service provides fire locations of active fires using complex satellite-based imaging techniques. Smoke transported from these fires is simulated with a computer model called HYSPLIT linked to the NOAA National Weather Service’s operational weather forecast models. Predictions of the smoke’s location and movement are updated each morning and provided on a NOAA National Weather Service Web site. Satellite imagery, primarily from GOES, is being used for verification of predicted smoke transport. If testing proves successful, the smoke guidance forecast tool could be deployed operationally in the fall of 2006. (Click NOAA image for larger view of sample smoke forecast guidance. Click here for high resolution version, which is a large file. Please credit “NOAA.”)

Smoke from large fires is an important component of fine particle pollution, which is responsible for an estimated 40,000 premature deaths each year. State and local air quality forecasters will be able to use the smoke — as well as operational air quality — forecast guidance when they prepare their forecasts or issue local alerts for their communities. The public, especially those with greater sensitivity to poor air quality, will be able to see hour-by-hour trends for the entire nation and take appropriate actions.

Relevant Web Sites
NOAA Air Quality Theme Page

Air Quality Forecast Guidance Capabilities Fact Sheet

NOAA Program Charter for Air Quality

NOAA CROSS-CUTTING TEAM WINS SILVER MEDAL FOR AIR QUALITY FORECASTING

NOAA’S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TRANSITIONS AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE INTO OPERATIONS

NOAA, EPA LAUNCH AIR QUALITY AWARENESS DAYS

NOAA AND EPA EXTEND REACH OF AIR QUALITY FORECASTS

NOAA/EPA ENHANCED CAPABILITIES OF AIR QUALITY FORECAST IN NORTHEASTERN U.S. NOW OPERATIONAL

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PRODUCT MEANS BETTER AIR QUALITY WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.

EPA & NOAA JOIN FORCES TO ENHANCE AND EXTEND AIR QUALITY FORECASTS

Media Contact:
NOAA Weather Service Public Affairs, (301) 713-0622