March 31, 2005 — Although coastal areas only comprise 17 percent of the contiguous land area, as of 2003 they were populated by more than half (53 percent) of the nation’s population. This and other coastal population information can be found in the newly released NOAA report entitled “Population Trends Along the Coastal United States: 1980-2008.” The report, released on March 1, 2005, provides an overview of coastal population trends from 1980 to 2003 and projected change in coastal population by 2008.

Coastal areas in the United States are home to a wealth of natural and economic resources and include some of the most developed areas in the nation. Although population increase and coastal development produce numerous economic benefits (e.g., employment, recreation and tourism, waterborne commerce and energy/mineral), they also may result in the loss of critical habitat, green space and biodiversity. When coastal ecosystems are pressured by population growth, they are more vulnerable to pollution, habitat degradation and loss, overfishing, invasive species and increased coastal hazards. Ironically, the qualities that make them so desirable are the very ones that have led to their endangerment

The report provides coastal resource managers and stakeholders with information to enhance coastal management decision-making. Key findings in this report are highlighted below.

U.S. COASTAL POPULATION TRENDS

National Overview
The U.S. population continues to grow in already densely populated coastal areas. The total coastal population between the years 1980 and 2003 increased by 33 million people (or 28 percent), roughly consistent with the nation’s rate of increase.

Because the ratio of coastal county population to the population of the United States as a whole has remained relatively stable since 1980, coastal county populations are not growing significantly faster than non-coastal population, but rather, it is the continued population growth in the limited land area of coastal counties that is of growing importance and the focus of increasing attention. This increasing density, coupled with the fast growing economy of coastal areas will make the task of managing coastal resources increasingly difficult, especially with the nation’s coastal population expected to increase by more than 7 million by 2008 and 12 million by 2015.

Regional and State Trends
The coastal population within the Pacific region showed the largest gain between 1980 and 2003, with almost 12 million people, followed by the Northeast with 8 million people. The Southeast region, however, exhibited the largest rate of change with a 58 percent increase, followed by the Pacific at 46 percent, and the Gulf of Mexico at 45 percent.

The Southeast has increasingly become a leading destination for retirees and job-seekers. Between the years 1995 and 2000, the Census Bureau reported that the highest levels of migration were to states that fall within the Southeast region and the Gulf of Mexico region, particularly to Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. In contrast, the lowest levels of migration were to states found in the Northeast region.

California had the largest absolute coastal population change, increasing by 9.9 million people, over twice the growth of any other state (with the exception of Florida). Florida, on the other hand, showed the greatest percent coastal population change between 1980 and 2003, reaching nearly 75 percent.

Population in Coastal Counties

• Most Populated Coastal Counties: Of the 10 coastal counties that experienced the greatest increases in population from 1980 to 2003, six are in California, three are in Florida and one is in Texas. The combined population increase of these 10 counties alone accounts for 30 percent of the coastal population growth during this period. Los Angeles, Calif., had the highest growth overall, followed by Harris, Texas, and Riverside, Calif. It is projected that San Diego, Calif., will be the leading coastal county in population increase in the years to come (2003-2008). It, along with Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside counties, Calif., will account for 12 percent of the nation’s expected total coastal population increase. Counties in South Florida and Harris County, Texas, also are anticipated to experience major growth during this period.
• Rate of Population Growth in Coastal Counties: The fastest rate of change from 1980 to 2003 occurred in coastal counties found in Florida, Alaska, Georgia, Texas and Virginia.
• Migration to Coastal Counties: Florida has increasingly become a “retirement magnet,” a migratory destination for retirees in recent decades. For example, the largest state-to-state migration between 1995 to 2000 was from New York to Florida. During that time period there also was an increase in migration from coastal to non-coastal states (e.g., individuals in California migrated to Nevada and Arizona).
• Coastal Population Density: Coastal counties (excluding Alaska) average 300 persons per square mile, much higher than the national average of 98 persons. New York City’s counties are the most densely populated in the nation, averaging almost 39,000 persons per square mile. Since 1980, population density has increased in coastal counties by 65 persons per square mile (or 28 percent). By 2008, it is expected to increase by another 13 persons per square mile (or 4 percent).

Building Along the Coast

• Coastal Housing: In 2000, coastal counties contained 52 percent of the nation’s total housing supply, led by California, Florida and New York, which comprised 41 percent of the coastal county total.
• Seasonal Housing: In 2000, there were approximately 2.1 million seasonal homes in coastal counties, 54 percent of the nation’s total, led by Florida, with 24 percent, and followed by Michigan, California and New York. Several coastal counties with low populations have also emerged as popular seasonal/vacation destinations. There are large numbers of seasonal homes in Maine, the Outer Banks of North Carolina, northern Michigan, Maryland and Delaware.
• Building Permits: From 1999 to 2003, the leading states in single-family unit construction were found in all five regions. Florida and California combined made up 37 percent of all permits issued for single-family units and 42 percent of all multi-family units in coastal counties.

Characteristics of the Coastal Population

• Age of Coastal Residents: Between 1980 and 2000, the 35-44 and 45-54 age groups (i.e., the Baby Boom generation) increased significantly as a share of the total coastal population — from 21 percent to 30 percent. At the same time, the proportion of younger adults aged 18-24 fell from 13 percent to 9 percent. These numbers are relatively consistent with the national average. Although the data do not show any great change over the years in the 65-and-older age group (which increased its share of the coastal population by about one percent between 1980 and 2000) the number of Americans entering that age group in the upcoming decades is of growing attention.
• Income of Coastal Residents: Coastal counties whose residents make the most amount of money (median household income greater than $58,000) appear to surround, are adjacent to, or are within commuting distance of large cities such as New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco. Coastal counties exhibiting the lowest median household income (less than $34,000), on the other hand, tend to be found in more rural areas (particularly in the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico regions). On average, coastal counties have a higher median household income than non-coastal counties, differing by almost 17 percent.

POPULATION BY COASTAL WATERSHED
In an attempt to provide population information in geographic units that may be more useful to coastal managers and planners, NOAA also produced population estimates for coastal watersheds within the contiguous United States. Unlike county and state lines, which are defined by political boundaries, watersheds are defined by natural geology and hydrology.

"A change in paradigm continues to take place, moving away from management based on jurisdictional boundaries and toward an ecosystem-based management approach to increases in coastal population, urban sprawl and their interactions with sensitive coastal ecosystems. The Administration's U.S. Ocean Action Plan highlighted the need to manage coastal resources in the framework of the watersheds that affect them, ultimately recognizing the crucial connection between coastal and upland areas and societal needs," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

According to the NOAA report:

• The total population of coastal watersheds in 2000 was approximately 127 million people (or 45 percent) of the national population. This represents a growth of 24 million people since 1980.
• Five of the 10 most populated watersheds are located from southern Virginia to New England.
• Population change from 1980 to 2000 was greatest in the Chesapeake Bay, which grew by more than 2 million. It was closely followed by San Francisco Bay and San Pedro Bay, Calif.
• Of the 10 most populated coastal watersheds, the greatest percent population changes are found in the Southeast and Pacific regions. The populations in St. Johns River, Fla.; Cape Canaveral, Fla. and Santa Ana, Calif., all grew by more than 70 percent.

Public policymakers and coastal managers are confronted with the daily task of finding a balance between benefiting from economic growth and mitigating the effects of this growth on coastal environments. Although this task will become ever more challenging as the coastal population continues to grow in a limited space, NOAA has (and will continue) to meet this challenge.

Relevant Web Sites
NOAA Ocean Service

NOAA Special Projects Office

NOAA Coastal and Ocean Resource Economics Page

Media Contact:
Glenda Powell, NOAA Ocean Service, (301) 713-3066 ext. 191 or Ben Sherman, NOAA Ocean Service, (301) 713-3066 ext. 178