February 3, 2004 — In the same way that weather forecasters rely on their interpretation of the causes of past and current weather conditions to make weather forecasts, scientists at the NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center conduct research on the causes of past and present climate conditions to support NOAA’s capability to predict future climate conditions. To do this, CDC scientists develop and apply state-of-the art scientific methods, called climate diagnostic techniques, to analyze observations and models of climate variability and change (Click on NOAA image to your left for larger view of CDC staff).

Much as a doctor applies expert analyses of observations and lab tests to arrive at a medical diagnosis, CDC scientists conduct expert analyses of their “patient” — the Earth’s climate system — to diagnose the causes of observed climate conditions. Instead of taking body temperatures or blood pressure, CDC scientists analyze climate system variables (such as atmospheric temperatures, precipitation, winds and ocean conditions). CDC scientists frequently employ climate models as aids in their diagnoses. They also apply their expert knowledge of naturally recurring atmospheric and oceanic features, such as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, to develop an understanding of how climate conditions may change and why. While a medical diagnosis is based on biology and chemistry, CDC scientists use their understanding of physics and chemistry to analyze and interpret the interrelationships among weather and climate phenomena. And just as medical prognoses depend on sound, scientifically based medical diagnosis, climate forecasts rely on sound, scientifically based climate diagnoses.

CDC provides NOAA with a unique center of expertise for developing and applying modern diagnostic methods to improve understanding and predictions of climate variability and change. In this role, CDC develops climate products and information to support national needs for scientifically based climate services and public and private sector needs for climate information that can help reduce impacts and costs of climate variability. CDC research focuses especially on phenomena that have major impacts on society and the economy, such as droughts and floods and climate conditions associated with El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO). On longer time scales, CDC concentrates on improving understanding of the causes of decadal-to-centennial climate variations and separating natural variability from human-induced climate changes.

Background and History
The Climate Diagnostics Center, NOAA Research’s youngest laboratory, was founded in 1993 through a memorandum of agreement between the NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and the NOAA Office of Global Programs. CDC is located in Boulder, Colo., with approximately 60 staff consisting of NOAA federal employees and scientists affiliated with the University of Colorado Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences. In addition to working with CIRES, CDC scientists also conduct collaborative climate research with scientists at other universities, NOAA research laboratories (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Environmental Technology Laboratory), NOAA operational prediction centers (Climate Prediction Center, Environmental Modeling Center, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center), other national laboratories (such as the National Center for Atmospheric Research and National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center), and with international climate prediction centers on projects aimed at improving medium-range weather forecasts, seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions and developing new climate products.

How NOAA Benefits from the CDC
Development of improved climate assessments and predictions contributes to the nation’s economic and environmental security, and is fundamental to NOAA’s mission. Through its research to improve understanding of past, current and evolving climate conditions, CDC provides NOAA and the nation with the capabilities to better understand and predict climate variations, including extreme events such as major droughts, floods and ENSO events — all of which have enormous economic, societal and environmental impacts. CDC research specifically supports NOAA’s Mission Goal 2: “To understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond”. Within this goal, CDC research directly addresses NOAA’s “Understand and Describe” strategy to increase understanding of the effects of coupled atmosphere-ocean-land processes on climate variability and change. CDC also supports NOAA’s “Assess and Predict” strategy aimed at improving intraseasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts and climate change projections. In addition to their collaborations within NOAA, CDC staff work extensively with a broad range of external customers to identify user priorities for future NOAA climate services.

CDC Research
CDC’s research is leading to the development of new NOAA climate products that support national needs for scientifically based climate information and services. CDC scientists employ a broad array of research methods to achieve NOAA’s goals, including observational diagnostic analyses, simple modeling studies and analyses of forecast experiments obtained from sophisticated coupled ocean-atmospheric models. CDC scientists also perform extensive analyses of observational and climate model data — a testing and evaluation process that is vital to improving current NOAA research and prediction models. The following are primary objectives of CDC research:

• Improving NOAA Forecast Capabilities Within A Season: CDC recently developed and implemented an experimental forecast product that substantially improves NOAA extended weather forecasts of surface temperatures and precipitation out to 6-10 days and week-two (days 8-14). CDC research on forecasts beyond short-range weather (a few days) and shorter than a season (called intra-seasonal) has greatly increased the understanding of how changes in tropical rainfall distributions affect the risks of heavy rainfall and flooding along the West Coast of the United States. This work is being conducted in collaboration with the NOAA ETL and CPC as part of a “weather-climate connection” program to better understand how climate variations affect weather phenomena, especially high-impact events such as flooding or severe storm outbreaks. This research is helping to improve the CPC U.S. Hazards Assessment product. Forecasts for times from a week to a season in advance, are used by decision-makers in sectors (such as reservoir water management and energy planning, and provide guidance for emergency managers and agricultural decisions). Benefits to the nation include increased lead-times for anticipating potential high impact weather and climate events and improved information for resource management decisions.
• Advancing NOAA Seasonal-Interannual Climate Forecast Capabilities: CDC research provides seasonal forecast guidance products in support of operational seasonal-to-interannual forecasts generated by the NOAA CPC, part of the NOAA National Weather Service. CDC scientists interact regularly with CPC forecasters, especially just prior to the issuance of the operational climate forecasts, and often provide experimental products to address specific forecast questions. The general public and decision-makers in the agriculture, water and energy resources management sectors use seasonal climate forecasts extensively. Improvements in this climate capability benefit taxpayers by ensuring more informed and efficient resource management decisions (Click on NOAA image to the right for a larger view of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation).
• Increasing Understanding Of The Links Between Decadal-to-Centennial Climate Variations and Shorter-Term Climate Variability: Collaborative work between CDC and CPC has shown that warm sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans combined with persistent La Niña conditions over the period 1998-2002 contributed to wide-spread droughts in middle latitudes, including large portions of the United States, Mediterranean and southwest Asia. This finding has contributed to the development of new capabilities in NOAA for attributing causes of observed climate conditions, and to an improved scientific foundation for providing drought forecasts. This information also supports U.S. and international decision makers in areas such as risk management, energy and natural resources, agriculture, transportation and homeland security. In fact, drought contributes to an estimated $6 to $8 billion in average annual economic losses to the United States, and has profound social and economic impacts nationally and globally. Therefore, even modest improvements in drought forecasts carry enormous potential to benefit both society and the economy.
• Increasing Understanding of the Causes Of 20th Century Regional Climate Changes: CDC research is providing insight as to the causes for 20th century regional climate trends. For example, collaborative research with the NCAR has shown that changes in North Atlantic/European climate since 1950 — including the drying in the Mediterranean region — were forced by long-term warming of tropical sea surface temperatures (primarily over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific). The public and policymakers benefit from these and other similar assessments because they help to explain current and evolving changes in climate, understand uncertainties in climate change projections and determine what will be necessary to estimate regional impacts of climate change. Research in this area also supports national and international climate assessments and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program.

Expanding NOAA Climate Services
CDC scientists have been working vigorously to develop new experimental climate products aimed at better meeting user needs in areas such water supply, energy, agriculture and wildfire management. As part of this effort, CDC collaborates extensively with the NOAA Regional Integrated Science Assessments projects, especially the Western Water Assessment to help identify current and prospective future uses of climate information. In cooperation with the NWS Climate Office, CDC also co-leads training workshops on Climate Variability to provide NWS field forecasters with the scientific background that they need to interpret NOAA climate products and to assist them in adapting national products to their region. CDC scientists also serve on an interagency core team in partnership with the Western Governors’ Association to develop plans for a National Integrated Drought Information System that will provide the nation with a drought early warning system for the 21^st century. Through its Web site, CDC provides a wide range of research and experimental products that are used extensively by both the public and private sectors. These efforts are all contributing to expanded and more effective NOAA climate services, more informed public and private sector decisions (such as anticipating and mitigating the impacts of drought), and increased speed and efficiency in transferring results of NOAA research into real world services.

The Future
CDC will continue to focus on research priorities on achieving goals articulated in NOAA’s Strategic Plan (especially Goal 2 - Climate), and the interagency CCSP Strategic Plan (especially Chapter 4, “Climate Variability and Change”). Near-term CCSP products for which CDC will provide significant contributions include:

• Reanalyses of historic climate data for key atmospheric features, and implications for attribution of causes of observed change through routine explanation of existing and evolving climate conditions;
• Climate extremes, including prospects for identifying possible causes and improving predictions; and
• Use and limitations of observations, data, forecasts and other projections in decision support for selected sectors and regions.

CDC will also continue to play a vital role in expanding NOAA climate services, working together with other NOAA and external partners. For example, CDC will continue its research partnership with the NOAA ETL on the “weather-climate” connection to increase understanding of the links between climate and weather, and to improve NOAA capabilities to forecast high impact events such as major floods and droughts at increased lead times. CDC will also collaborate closely with the NOAA GFDL in climate attribution and modeling research to address key science questions for the CCSP and the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. CDC will continue to work with CPC on the integration of experimental intraseasonal to interannual research results into operational products and services as part of an effort to accelerate the implementation of the NWS strategic goal to provide a seamless suite of forecast products ranging from minutes to multiple seasons in advance. CDC’s physical science research will be closely coordinated with social science analyses to identify current and prospective future uses of climate information.

Relevant Web Sites
CDC Home Page

CDC Data Products

CDC FAQ

CDC Science Review 2001

CDC Interactive Plotting & Analysis

CDC Experimental Two-Week Forecast

CDC Spotlight Articles

CDC Publications

CDC Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)

CPC U.S. Hazards Assessment

U.S. Drought Monitor

NOAA Climate Prediction Center

NOAA Environmental Technology Laboratory

NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

NOAA Environmental Modeling Center

NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research

NOAA Office of Global Programs

NOAA National Weather Service

Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)

Regional Integrated Science Assessments (RISAs)

National Center for Atmospheric Research

Western Governors’ Association

Western Water Assessment

Media Contact:
Jana Goldman, NOAA Research, (301) 713-2483