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NOAA PRODUCTS AND SERVICES BENEFIT THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

NOAA and the Agricultural Sector. November 24, 2003 — Weather and climate are the most important factors influencing variability in the nation's crop yields, related production and ultimately food supply. The challenge and skill in producing the highest quality crops and yield per acre are found in the agricultural sectors ability to correctly interpret the impact of short term (weeks to months) weather and near term (months up to a year) seasonal climate predictions in their region. Long before weather events occur, agricultural producers must decide what type, when, where and how many acres of crops will be planted — as well as how many live stock (cattle, sheep, etc.) should be sold, bought and bred. Agricultural producers base these decisions on practical knowledge of their land, likely available water resources, capital resources, past decision-making experience and outcomes, economic expectations, as well as predicted future seasonal weather patterns and conditions. Production decisions must also be made within a limited time frame, which once instituted, are mostly irreversible due to the nature of crop (and livestock) production and markets. Once the growing season starts, the agricultural sector must then proactively adjust strategies to minimize the risks and costs influenced by many factors mostly outside of their control — hoping their final choices pay off. Short and near term weather information and forecasts are critical to managing risk and achieving success. Depending on the type of crop (or livestock), there are decisions regarding the timing of planting and harvesting, timing and methods of fertilization and pest control, and even movement of livestock that can be greatly improved with timely and more accurate weather forecasts and other related information.

Cooperative Partnerships
NOAA works in partnership with a number of organizations regarding issues of interest to the agricultural sector:

Joint Agricultural Weather Facility: The Joint Agricultural Weather Facility is operated by both NOAA and the World Agricultural Outlook Board of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Created in 1978, its primary mission is to routinely collect global weather data and agricultural information to determine the impact of growing season weather conditions on crops and livestock production prospects. Global conditions are monitored on a daily basis and agricultural assessments are made weekly to keep the nation's growers, exporters, USDA commodity analysts, the Secretary of Agriculture and top staff informed of worldwide weather related developments and their effects on crops and livestock.
- Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin: The NOAA CPC, in partnership with USDA/JAWF, produces the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, a report of growing conditions within the US and internationally.
Weekly U.S. Drought Monitor: The NOAA CPC works directly with USDA, providing expertise and information they need to develop agricultural assessments and outlooks. CPC models soil moisture as input for its monthly and seasonal forecasts, and as input into the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor (jointly authored by CPC, the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, National Drought Mitigation Center, and USDA).
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service: The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service's satellite remote-sensing program is a critical element in USDA's analysis of global crop conditions and agricultural production providing timely, accurate and unbiased estimates of global crop area, yield and production. The FAS analysts depend on NOAA weather, satellite (i.e., AVHRR) and other data to forecast foreign grain, oilseed and cotton production.
Risk Management Agency: NOAA weather data and/or analyses containing the data are also used in crop insurance services. NOAA data is used directly and indirectly in establishing rates and coverages, high risk areas, planting and harvesting dates, crop hardiness areas, new crop programs and developing crop models and current year loss estimates. For example, temperature, precipitation and wind data are used to establish if insurable natural conditions (i.e., drought, wind, frost, freeze, excess wetness, heat, etc.) caused the loss. Furthermore, insurance services and compliance programs use historical and current weather data as an additional information resource in determining if losses are reasonable.

NOAA Products and Services Assist the Agricultural Sector
NOAA assists farmers and ranchers by providing them with a number of water, nonpoint source pollution, weather and climate products and services.

NOAA Hydrology Products and Services
The NOAA National Weather Service provides the agriculture sector with valuable hydrology information and services:

NOAA Hydrologic Services: The NOAA Office of Hydrologic Development provides the agriculture sector with valuable hydrologic information and services ranging from droughts to floods. Data to allow NOAA to accomplish this mission depends on close collaboration with a wide range of partners, including the Department of Interior’s U.S. Geological Survey, the Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Examples of relevant hydrology products and services used by the agricultural sector include the following:
- Water Supply Outlooks: For more than 50 years the NOAA National Weather Service, in partnership with the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service, has provided multi-seasonal quantitative water supply forecasts in the western United States, where agriculture is highly dependent on irrigation. This activity includes an intensive program to monitor the snow that provides the lion’s share of water for agriculture, hydropower, municipal and industrial use in much of the West. Water managers, such as the Department of Interior’s Bureau of Reclamation, use these forecasts to make decisions about water allocation. When forecasts allow water managers to commit allocations prior to the planting period, it allows farmers to eliminate one source of uncertainty and increases the likelihood of successful crops.
- NOAA Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service: The NOAA Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service provides new forecast products depicting the magnitude and uncertainty of occurrence for hydrologic events—ranging from droughts to floods. AHPS uses a combination of remote sensing, data automation and advanced (weather, climate and hydrologic) modeling to analyze data and create graphical displays of probability forecasts. Once fully implemented at the national level, AHPS will significantly improve river forecasts and water resource management in the United States, with lead times of as little as an hour to as much as several months. AHPS modeling is especially well suited to integrating increasingly reliable climate forecasts to provide probabilistic information that can be used in sophisticated decision support models used to manage water resources. The National Hydrologic Warning Council has estimated that the total annual benefit from AHPS long-range water forecasts will exceed $750 million.
- NOAA National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center: The NOAA National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center provides remotely-sensed and modeled hydrology products for the coterminous U.S. and Alaska. NOHRSC airborne, satellite, and modeled snow data and products include estimates of: snow water equivalent, snow depth, snow pack temperatures, snow sublimation, snow evaporation, estimates of blowing snow, modeled and observed snow information, airborne snow data, satellite snow cover, historic snow data and time-series for selected modeled snow products. This information serves an integral role in developing accurate water supply forecasts in the western United States and spring snow melt flood forecasts.
- NOAA Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center: The NOAA Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center prepares national standards for precipitation frequency and probable maximum precipitation. Both are used for a multitude of planning and design purposes, from reservoirs to local storm water drainage. This information allows civil engineers and public officials to account for different levels of rainfall in their designs and plans. It is also used to analyze nonpoint source pollution resulting from agricultural practices.

NOAA NonPoint Source Pollution Products and Services
Excess nutrients are the most important coastal pollutant in the United States^1,2. Excess nutrients come from several sources, including (but not limited to) sewage treatment plants, industrial point sources, land development, agriculture and the burning of fossil fuels. Nutrient pollution affects changes in the coastal ecosystems that impact fisheries, recreation and tourism. The sources, quantities and effects of excess nutrients vary greatly between coastal ecosystems. As a result, uniform solutions do not work everywhere. While conflict among sectors is inevitable, balanced scientific approaches can help. The NOAA Ocean Service has undertaken a number of activities to address the effects of nonpoint source pollution (including nutrient pollution) on the nation's coasts, many of which will directly benefit the agricultural sector:

NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science: The NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science is committed to conducting local and regional integrated assessments and longer-range research to better understand the upstream sources and downstream effects of excess nutrients, to create better models to predict ecosystem responses and to develop cost-effective and socially acceptable response strategies. The integrated assessments will identify site-specific approaches to reducing the impacts of excess nutrients by involving all stakeholders — including agricultural interests — providing flexibility at the local level, using the best available science and providing better tools and information for resource managers.
NOAA National Status and Trends Program: The NOAA National Status and Trends Program within NCCOS’ Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment determines the current status of, and detects changes in, the environmental quality of the nation's estuarine and coastal waters. The NS&T Program is a valuable source of long-term monitoring data on contaminants and other environmental conditions, as well the resulting biological effects. The data from this program will contribute significantly to NCCOS’ integrated assessments.
Other NOAA Programs: Other NOAA programs which address nonpoint source pollution include the NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserve System and the National Marine Sanctuary Program (e.g., Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary Water Quality Protection Program).

NOAA Weather Products and Services

NOAA National Weather Service: The NOAA National Weather Service provides weather, hydrologic and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories, to protect life and property and enhance the national economy. The National Weather Service has a national infrastructure in place to gather and process data from the land, sea and air. It conducts in situ (land and water) and airborne observations/monitoring; provides the official hourly, daily, weekly, seasonal and annual forecasts and predictions; issues watches and warnings and operates the NOAA severe weather alert system.
NOAA Cooperative Observer Program and Storm Spotters: The NOAA Cooperative Observer Program and storm spotters are trained community volunteers that enhance NOAA National Weather Service operations. Specifically, COOP observers collect weather data that becomes part of the nation's climate records, while storm spotters provide the National Weather Service with visual confirmation of impending and ongoing severe weather events.

NOAA Climate Products and Services
The NOAA National Weather Service, NOAA Research and NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service provide the agricultural sector with valuable climate products and services.

NOAA Climate Prediction Center: The NOAA Climate Prediction Center provides the nation’s only official, operational long-range climate predictions. CPC’s forecasts combine knowledge of tropical ocean surface temperatures (including El Niño and La Niña), soil moisture, snow cover and global circulation to provide the agricultural sector with medium range forecasts (6-10 and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation forecasts), monthly outlooks, as well as seasonal temperature, precipitation and drought outlooks (including El Niño/Southern Oscillation forecasts). For example, CPC’s U.S. Hazards Assessment gives emergency managers and planners a “heads-up” on potentially hazardous weather conditions during the upcoming three to 14 days in the future. The CPC also issues the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook each month (on the third Thursday of the month at 3:15 p.m. ET, on the day it releases the long-lead temperature and precipitation outlooks).
NOAA Models: NOAA analyzes the climate information it has collected using a number of different types of computer models. Specifically, NOAA’s weather forecasting models are used to predict future weather patterns out to a week or more. Longer-range forecasts models, on the other hand, are used to predict seasonal-to-interannual climate conditions, as well as to simulate climate change over decades to centuries.
NOAA Research: NOAA Research contributes research, monitoring, modeling and assessment that builds a science-based knowledge of the climate system and of the potential uses of weather and climate products and services in agricultural management. Partnerships with public and private sector organizations provide NOAA with a critical link to the agricultural community to understand the needs for monitoring and forecasts in agricultural management. Current NOAA research that benefits agricultural management includes 1) physical science efforts to enhance understanding of observed weather and climate to improve monitoring and prediction products, and 2) user and stakeholder studies to identify needed products and services (what and when) to support agricultural management practices. NOAA climate research that is most relevant to the agricultural sector includes the following:
- NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center: The NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center develops and applies climate diagnostic techniques to increase understanding of the causes of observed climate variations; to improve models used for climate analyses, predictions, and assessments; and to develop new climate products to meet current and emerging national needs for scientifically-based climate information and services. These activities contribute to the nation's economic and environmental security by providing scientifically-based climate information and products that can better serve the needs of the public, planners and decision-makers across a wide array of sectors, including agriculture and water resources management. The CDC also provides valuable research in climate modeling and prediction.
- NOAA Office of Global Programs: The NOAA Office of Global Programs has two climate programs that would benefit the agricultural sector. Specifically, the Human Dimensions of Global Change Program conducts research on the early warning of ENSO events and the potential impact across regions of the United States for agriculture, water management, and other weather/climate sensitive sectors. The objective of one project is to perform regional case studies of the accuracy, reliability and value of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts on intensely irrigated agriculture. This study will specifically show whether and how climate forecast information can be used to reduce the vulnerability of irrigated agriculture to low water-availability conditions. Secondly, the NOAA Regional Integrated Science Assessment Program is conducting applied research on the regional and local impacts of climate variability, with stakeholders and decision makers in mind.
NOAA National Climactic Data Center: The NOAA National Climactic Data Center is also conducting climate projects that benefit the agricultural sector:
- NOAA National Climate Impact Indicators Program: The NOAA National Climate Impact Indicators program is developing climate indices to provide public and private sector analysts with up-to-date quantitative information on the effect of weather and climate on vital sectors of the U.S. economy and society. For example, the crop moisture stress index reflects the influence of severe drought and catastrophic wetness on annual crop yield for corn and soybean crops.
- U.S. Climate at a Glance: The best place to acquire climate data is NOAA’s Climate at a Glance.
NOAA’s Climate Services Program: NOAA’s Climate Services Program is another climate resource for the agricultural sector. It is an integrated endeavor designed to develop and deliver a full suite of climate information (i.e., observations, forecasts, assessments, state-of-the-atmosphere reports, climate change scenarios, climate monitoring results, enhanced research and applications), thereby providing an improved basis for climate-related decision-making. NOAA collects and provides to users hourly, daily, monthly and annual data; time series and maps for various climate parameters (e.g., precipitation, temperature, wind, humidity and snow fall) for the United States and other parts of the world. NOAA also compiles data on atmospheric and oceanic conditions, including El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other regional and global climate (atmospheric and ocean) patterns. The NOAA Climate Services Program also benefits from the collaborative participation of several NOAA line offices.

Climate Change and Variability: Impact on Agriculture
Short or long-term fluctuations in weather patterns — climate variability and climate change — can have extreme impacts on agricultural production, slashing crop yields and forcing farmers to adopt new agricultural practices in response to altered conditions. The variability associated with global climate change is projected to have significant regional impacts on agriculture and the production of food supplies for human use and consumption. Through changes in temperature, water regimes and carbon dioxide levels, global climate change will directly affect crops, soil, pests and livestock. Both producers and consumers, within the United States and abroad, will experience the impacts of these changes. Farmers can respond to many of the direct effects of climate change by adjusting their practices, while food buyers may find variations in the quantity, quality and prices of produce in their local markets.

The Agricultural and economic impacts from climate change depend primarily on two factors:
1) the rate and magnitude of climate change (which NOAA monitors) and the agricultural effects of these changes and 2) the ability of agricultural production to adapt to changing environmental conditions.

Fortunately, NOAA has improved its climate forecasting considerably over the last decade and continues to improve its predictions using better data and models. Researchers at the NOAA CDC have linked drought over the United States to both La Niña and abnormally warm ocean surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean. The NOAA Environmental Modeling Center plans to implement a new, much improved dynamical climate model late in 2004. This new model is an important stepping stone toward improved CPC forecasts of ENSO, including the very difficult to forecast weak and moderate events. The new model also raises the exciting prospect that predictions of the tropical 30-60-day wave related to “pineapple express” heavy rain/flooding events in the northwestern United States during fall and winter may soon be possible. Perhaps the best example of how NOAA climate forecasting has benefited the agricultural sector are the improvements NOAA has made in its El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts in the last decade.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has longer term
implications on weather patterns throughout the world. The
two phases of ENSO, the warm phase (El Niño) and the cold
phase (La Niña) each last from about 12 to 18 months. El Niño
brings extra precipitation to places that are normally dry,
especially during the winter. El Niño tends to make normally
wet places dry and normally dry places wet, whereas La Nina tends to make normally wet areas wetter
and normally dry areas drier. La Niña is more
often implicated in U.S. drought during the warm season than
is El Niño. Both events significantly disrupt agriculture (as well
as other sectors of the economy).

Over the last decade, NOAA has improved its ENSO forecasting
so that these events and their expected climate impacts can
be predicted several months in advance. This allows
individuals, industries and public officials to take timely actions (based on the forecast) to
mitigate and reduce losses or to capitalize on the information to improve economic outcomes.
Within agriculture, crop planting decisions, seed selection, fertilizer application, etc., can be
adjusted to reduce vulnerability to abnormal weather conditions, thus benefiting both
producers and consumers.

Several NOAA studies support the benefits of NOAA’s improved El Niño forecasts. The paper “The Economic Consequences of El Niño and La Niña for Agriculture” estimated that U.S. agricultural losses attributed to the 1997-1998 El Niño and the 1998-1999 La Niña range from $1.5 to $1.7 billion from El Niño and $2.2 to $6.5 billion from La Niña. A second paper entitled “The Value of Improved ENSO Prediction to U.S. Agriculture” is the first systematic effort to estimate the economic value of more accurate El Niño predictions on U.S. agriculture. Recognizing the limitations of such empirical forecasting, the authors calculate the value to consumers and producers of an improved forecast at $266 to $320 million annually. Put another way, if these future annual benefits are expressed in today’s dollars and appropriately discounted, the value to the agricultural sector of a high skill ENSO prediction operating more than 10 years is around $2 billion.

In “The value of El Niño Forecasts in Agricultural Commodity Markets: The Cases of U.S. Corn,” the potential savings in the costs of stockpiling farm commodities with better climate forecasts was investigated. This study concluded that with perfect predictions of El Niño events, U.S. corn stocks would decline by some nine percent on average, about a $240 million benefit annually to farmers and consumer benefits of U.S. corn storage from optimizing inventory storage costs. In summary, these studies all support the conclusion that improvements in prediction of El Niño and La Niña can have economic payoffs for businesses and the U.S. population. Furthermore, a study on “the Benefits to Mexican Agriculture of an El Niño-southern Oscillation (ENSO) Early Warning System” indicated that the benefits of an ENSO early warning system for Mexico is approximately $10 million annually, based on a 51 year time period and then a forecast skill of 70 percent. This value translates into an internal rate of return for such an early warning system of approximately 30 percent. The values of higher skill levels are correspondingly higher.

NOAA has successfully supported the needs of the agricultural sector over the last few decades and plans to improve those products and services used by this sector in the near future.

Foot Notes:
¹ National Research Council. 2000. Clean Coastal Waters: understanding and Reducing the Effects of Nutrient Pollution. National Academy Press.

² Pew Oceans Commission. 2003. America’s Living Oceans: Charting a Course for Sea Change.

Relevant Web Sites
Joint Agricultural Weather Facility

Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin

Weekly U.S. Drought Monitor

NOAA National Climatic Data Center

National Drought Mitigation Center

NOAA National Weather Service

NOAA Hydrology Information

NOAA Office of Hydrologic Development

NOAA Water Supply Outlooks

NOAA Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

NOAA National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center